this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2023
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Most "hardcore" gamers, as in you are well versed in your specific genre of games, can only sustain the grind of 2 live service games, More than 2 it's pretty much consume more hours than a full time job. So as far as I know current category of gamers are in one of following categories, with exclusion of youtuber/twitch streamer etc as they are paid to play whatever they collab with or fan/chat request, etc. (also not including mobile gamers.)
Other than these, I don't consider the rest "hardcore" gamers, as they might have other stuff they enjoy thus gaming aren't the focus of their leisure time. As casual gamer, they are not committed to a genre or a game enough to stick with it long time, thus even if it's f2p with season pass or whatever fomo, it's hard to get money out of them compare to the hardcore cat 3 ones. And out of all the above 5 categories, what live service want to capture is the "whale" category. They don't actually have the time to commit like hardcore gamers(unless they are from UAE), so they just buy their way to the top, spend 200~2000 on one game per season is normal spending to them. And sometimes they will have the "whale" specific gatcha/drops. Like brands that release designer bag in limited quantity cause they know their market's whales. And whales is probably an off shoot from cat 3 and may or may not bias into other category depending on what they think if it's justified.(UAE players is hard to category into types, they are their own category, they are "the" whales).
New live service games can only capture cat 1/2/3 temporary, IF they beat the top dogs in their genre, then they become the new status quo. It's very hard or almost impossible to become top or beat the top in cat 1 and 5 cause fan loyalty. (like imagine beating CS2 or Dota, or say take away 10% of their market share. ) Cause, it means, to give up all their time/money investment and switch to yours, and face uncertainty. If your game folds 3 years later with bad decision making their time/money is wasted. All "new" live service needs to navigate how they can trigger a switch from those gamers, and keep in mind that cat 3 players only gonna ever last a while.