this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2023
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A Boring Dystopia
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I don't think it will burst. It'll just slowly deflate as new houses come onto the market and demand eases. The main problem (at least where I live) is that there just aren't enough houses being built. I don't think we'll see a sharp price drop anytime soon because there are so many people waiting to buy.
The problem tends to be that houses are being built but they're not the right houses. They're all really expensive houses, there's nothing for first time buyers.
So true. Where I am, a podunk town in the deep south, most of the homes being built are 4 bed, 1800sf+. The 'starter' homes with 3 beds, 1200sf are still like $185k which is ridiculous compared to what people make around here.
Even building condominiums would be an improvement. Personally, I hate condos (because I own one) but at least it gives people the chance to own something.
I know you said compared to what people make, but I would kill to see a starter house for under 200k... Where I am (not NYC not Cali) the cheapest is 300k for a twice burned down glorified shed in a flood zone and in the worst parts of town. It's absofuckinglutley insane...
You may be right. I saw an article about a year ago that said the only way they saw out of the housing crisis was to build like crazy. And that makes sense but if the economy takes a nosedive then the buying may stop which could cause a crash. No one can predict the future, but markets do fall apart sometimes.
I think it's happening, at least in pockets. Housing developments that were abandoned after the 2008 crash are starting to spring to life again around here. Some of them have already doubled in size and one is getting ready to get about 10x as big.