this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2023
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A Boring Dystopia
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When will the bubble burst?
I don't think it will burst. It'll just slowly deflate as new houses come onto the market and demand eases. The main problem (at least where I live) is that there just aren't enough houses being built. I don't think we'll see a sharp price drop anytime soon because there are so many people waiting to buy.
The problem tends to be that houses are being built but they're not the right houses. They're all really expensive houses, there's nothing for first time buyers.
So true. Where I am, a podunk town in the deep south, most of the homes being built are 4 bed, 1800sf+. The 'starter' homes with 3 beds, 1200sf are still like $185k which is ridiculous compared to what people make around here.
Even building condominiums would be an improvement. Personally, I hate condos (because I own one) but at least it gives people the chance to own something.
I know you said compared to what people make, but I would kill to see a starter house for under 200k... Where I am (not NYC not Cali) the cheapest is 300k for a twice burned down glorified shed in a flood zone and in the worst parts of town. It's absofuckinglutley insane...
You may be right. I saw an article about a year ago that said the only way they saw out of the housing crisis was to build like crazy. And that makes sense but if the economy takes a nosedive then the buying may stop which could cause a crash. No one can predict the future, but markets do fall apart sometimes.
I think it's happening, at least in pockets. Housing developments that were abandoned after the 2008 crash are starting to spring to life again around here. Some of them have already doubled in size and one is getting ready to get about 10x as big.
I wonder this too, but I'm coming to believe that as long as investors are throwing money at housing and people need it, it might not burst. With enough wealth concentration, maybe it just all gets progressively bought up and rented out at insane prices, with growth coming from speculation among massive institutional investors.
But I haven't really thought of this deeply or looked into whether it's sound.
This is what you're seeing now where mega corps are buying up trailer parks and all the low end housing. Theyre cranking up the prices on these to justify cranking the prices on the mid range stuff and so on up the $ ladder.
There are no more low end housing being built anywhere. It's all 350k and up being built.
Thats the main problem really. The shitty stuff got priced where mid stuff used to be and there's no supply for first time buyers to use to build equity.