this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2023
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[Dormant] Electric Vehicles

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Will BEV adoptions lead to more ICE pickups? (self.evs)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by AA5B to c/evs
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In the US a decade or two ago, we enacted regulations to increase the efficiency of passenger vehicles. However larger vehicles typically needed for commercial and farming uses were exempt. Now we see the results of that as reverse incentive, where trucks became more common, even for simple commuting

Will the same happen with BEVs, a reverse incentive that increases the use of trucks?

I just read an opinion piece (lost just as quickly, sorry) that discussed issues with sales of EV pickups at GM and Ford. They made a compelling argument that EVs still have weaknesses as work trucks and point to the success of Rivian as a recreational truck. Certainly arguments against EV pickups do center on those weaknesses, even for scenarios where it wouldn’t apply (how many truck owners actually tow regularly?). So, as BEVs rapidly take over the car and crossover markets, and the holdouts have fewer choices of ICE cars, will they increasingly turn to trucks?

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I think it's reasonable to assume that work trucks will be the last holdout for ICE vehicles. I don't think that means we'll see MORE trucks on the road. By the time trucks are the only ICE option left, charging infrastructure will be at a point where range anxiety will be a thing of the past.

Also, I think you're ignoring the fact that PHEV's are a thing and I expect them to become more popular as BEV popularity rises. They will bridge the gap for people who like the idea of BEV but still need the range or convenience of ICE occasionally. Right now PHEV's are kind of expensive (just like BEV's) but that will change right along with BEV pricing.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Really, it seems like fleet work trucks will go battery electric sooner than the luxury/vanity and redneck or towing crowd.

The cost savings for a work pickup for a fleet are considerable, as are the maintenance costs. Fleet buyers can immortize the cost of the investment in a more rational accounting manner, unlike your typical consumer. Fleet buyers also have capital that they can invest up front.

Long distance towing is a tough nut to crack, but I don't think that many people actually too that long of a distance with pickup trucks. They exist, but are much smaller section of the overall truck market.

I'm just hoping that electric drivetrains will one day enable smaller pickup trucks again as they won't have to deal with the insane CAFE mpg requirements.