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Under what plausible scenario do you think WWIII happens here, of all places?
There are zero world powers that would go to war for the Palestinians over this. Russia has its hands more than full and has zero to gain in any case. China has no interest in the region except to expand its role as an international power by acting as a peace broker. The US is obviously going to take the side of Israel, as are the major European powers to a greater or lesser extent. And so on.
That leave regional powers. The only regional power that has indicated any interest whatsoever is Iran. Neither Lebanon nor Syria can be considered regional powers at this point, and Egypt and Saudis Arabia will both ultimately side with the US/Israel.
So we are left with Iran. Irans physical separation from Israel and the lack of support from the nations between them means they have two choices. They can attack by air/sea, or they can ramp up their supply and support for terrorist networks.
The former would very possibly result it the destruction of Iran. Iran has no allies that would be willing to go to war with the US in order to protect it. The Iranian navy, such that it is, would be a non-factor, and ground forces wouldn’t be able to leave Iranian territory. It would be an air war with the Iranian Air Force and air defenses up against a more advanced and better supplied Israeli and potentially US air/naval attack. The goal would be something like “degradation of armed forces and command and control” but would include attacks on infrastructure.
If Iran cranks on the terrorist network supplies and intel, it is 100% guaranteed they’re going to get an Israeli (without the US) response, which might include the destruction of Iranian military and political assets.
I don’t see any upside for Iran besides saber-rattling and maybe a perfunctory thing with Hezbollah to keep the hand in the game.
Your response is perfectly logical and I agree.
Unfortunately the world isn't and World War I started because of a guy eating a sandwich.
If TV writers put this shit on a script we told him there was no way that would be plausible.
Desperate people do stupid shit
That’s really what I’m saying, though. There is no WWI scenario here. Neither Russia nor China will risk war with the US over Palestine. There’s no motivation and they have no national interest in doing so. They certainly do not have a mutual defense agreement with Hamas.
If Iran were still in the throes of civil disorder, they might want to amp things up to distract their populace and dramatically increase supplies to Hezbollah. As it stands, I think they probably still will. If they do it too much though, they do risk an escalation by Israel (ie an air raid or two against targets in Iran as well as Lebanon) to which they will not be able to respond.
No nation, except the Palestinians, is going to go to war with Israel and the US for the sake of the Palestinians. And as we are seeing, the Palestinians are poorly positioned to do so.
I read an article at least 35-40 years ago that the Palestinians would be better off throwing lemons rather than rocks at the Israel’s troops. There’s no Palestinian Martin Luther King or Gandhi, who by their own fortitude lays bare the morals of the situation.