I dont know. Given that Israel is announcing constantly over the past days how they were hitting hundreds of Hamas targets, they claim to have a very detailled knowledge of where Hamas is. That also means that they must have had noticed increased activity, because all the material for the attack needs to get somewhere and at the latest they most have had noticed the buildup of fighters and demolition equipment on the morning of the attack.

So either they knew very well that the attack was prepared at the latest when it was imminent, or they are now lying about the targets and just lobbing bombs at random places now. But also i remember the videos of the soldiers being caught off guard when Hamas was storming their bases, which means a collossal fuckup in the warning chain or deliberate non information.

Or, counter-counterpoint, everyone and their dog knows that Israel is spying on everyone and their dog, so all communications by people planning this shit are kept to in person or paper. Anything that has to be transmitted electronically likely is said in code phrases that are agreed on in person.

This has been standard practice for anyone involved in the intelligence world for over a century, so I would sure hope so!

It's still a huge intelligence failure, however, as infiltrating such groups is the primary focus of counter-intelligence organizations. This is also a long-standing practice, which is why all modern terrorist groups use compartmentalization to ensure nobody knows the entire plan.

Israel now have the clout from their own people and the US to do whatever they want. The phrase "never let a crisis go to waste" comes to mind.

They only have themselves to blame if you treat people like animals you dont get to be surprised if they turn around and bite you.

I wouldn't go so far as to say "of course" about it, Hanlon's razor still applies. But it's a scenario worth investigating.