this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2023
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As a Kbin user I went to take a look at Kbin, it's about 40k users in all. Looks like all in there'll be more than 100k users.
The monthly stats for users for both Kbin and Lemmy are encouraging, the numbers really spiked in June. I hope this continues for a while yet.
There will be another spike on July 1st IMO, that's when reddit 3rd party apps will stop working, after that things should settle, it's possible some people will go back to reddit but things should normalize after that.
Unless some other big corp decides to sh*it on their users like reddit is doing lol.
There's a greater likelihood that the content creators are the ones moving. Most of the reddit power users likely used third party apps. Most of the reddit power users are also the ones who wrote most of the comments worth reading.
So if on june 1 most of the reddit power users flee, reddit's enshitification will have reached a terminal stage. Eventually, reddit will stop having things worth reading, and the lurkers will all move over.
I think we're in for a long decline of reddit a la facebook. However unlike facebook, there isn't a market of old people/foreign markets that can fill their user numbers.
I'm noticing that in some of the communities I followed on Reddit that have moved to Lemmy. It's a number of the big-name posters who really kept the community active who've moved, and the others are trickling in after them...