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Recursion (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 years ago by alphacyberranger to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (6 children)

Napkin math, from the last time I saw this:

I’ve been thinking about this. I estimate a few people per 1000 would do an atrocity for no reason if they were guaranteed no consequences, and the deaths if the switch is pulled are 2^(n-1) for the nth switch. The expected deaths will cross 1 somewhere in the high single-digits, then (since it’s outcome*chance), so the death minimising strategy is actually to pull yours if the chain is at least that long.

Edit: This assumes the length of the chain is variable but finite, and the trolley stops afterwards. If it's infinite obviously you pull the switch.

[–] tomi000 2 points 2 years ago (5 children)

Could you elaborate what you are analysing here? If I dont misinterpret the model, the option where you dont double the victims minimizes deaths every time.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (4 children)

Ah, but then you're giving the opportunity to the next guy to kill even more, if he wants. Most people obviously won't want to do that, but a rare few will, and the body count gets so big so fast that it only takes a few switches before that's a bad risk.

I was expecting a bigger number of switches, but I guess that's just another example of humans being bad at tracking the consequences of large quantities.

[–] archiotterpup 2 points 2 years ago

I think you're on the right track.

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