I think there'll be a lot more, since so far people have only left for ideological reasons. Once they actually lose access to reddit via third party apps, it'll be a lot easier to justify moving on.

And there are probably people still hoping that reddit will reverse their decision or somehow fix things before the changes take effect.

I agree. I could see a few extra users joining, but I don’t think it will be a flood.

I read about 3% of Reddit users use a third party app, which doesn't sound like a lot but Reddit has millions of users.

When the 3PAs are actually gone and when they open Apollo or other app, that user is not going to be ok with the official Reddit app and they’ll look for an alternative. I bet a bunch end up on Lemmy or kbin.

I think a couple of powerusers, that still hoped to change something with the blackout, will check Lemmy out after the new policy started. But I don't expect a huge wave.