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I agree with your position, but I’m struggling to reconcile that with the western push for war with global superpowers.
The pandemic temporarily crippled our economy with an interruption in shipping from China. How the hell are we planning to survive a hot war with China over Taiwan? They could defeat us without firing a single shot, by just refusing to ship here.
China also doesn't want to interrupt trade, it benefits them just as much as America, that's how. They won't invade Taiwan if there's a threat of war disrupting trade.
If you isolate the country from China too much then there is no benefit to China not invading. Globalization encourages peace because trade benefits all. Russia is suffering from all their sanctions now, they made a mistake thinking things would be over in a few days and people would get over it. Now they need to grit their teeth and pull through it. No one else wants to be Russia.
Why wouldn't China do exactly the same mistake in some point?
As European I would advice against the trust that the strong economic ties would keep totalitarians in check.
But China is much better positioned to outlast us during any interruption in trade for the same reason Russia has survived sanctions. They have the local production capacity and access to vast mineral & resource wealth that we can’t match.
Do they? As much as we like to play it quiet, the US exports a lot of food globally- China gets some $17b worth. Those tend to be perishable, so any hot war would have to be over quickly for China to come outahead, and any protracted war would see them need a new breadbasket eother domestic (reducing the industrial/military work pool), or international (which comes with the same risks they have now over US ties).
China isn't reliant on imported food, from the US or anywhere.
Right, but China is making broad new alliances every day across the globe, and we’ve spent the last century making enemies. So who’s better positioned to find alternative trade partners?
“Every time China visits, we get a hospital. Every Britain visits, we get a lecture.” And every time the US visits, we’re bringing barely concealed threats.
Plus there's no one saying you can't reduce reliance on specific countries like China. It is indeed dangerous to rely on any one country for too much. But if you spread it out to many countries and make sure to have some domestic supply for the most important things it would be fine.
At the moment Trump is targeting all countries, and many for no reason at all.
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