UK Politics
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A coalition could achieve it, you wouldn't need a majority.
We wouldn't be in the dire mess we are now if the AV referendum had succeeded.
The best case scenario imo for the next election is reform continue to take votes away from the conservatives. The populace lose confidence in labour so they don't secure enough votes for a majority. But they form a progressive alliance with libs and greens purely to enact electoral reform.
Once we have proportional representation a new election is immediately called and we finally have fair representation. Reform will get a ton of seats so they finally feel represented. Same for lib dems and green.
That coalition would need a majority. That is the whole way the system works. And as no 3rd party coalition is going to gain 50% of MPs. That majority will require one of the bigger parties. This is the whole reason mathematically FPTP will always turn into a 2 party system. Game theory allows no other effective result.
3rd parties will always split the vote allowing lower support opposition to gain power. Forcing opposition politics rather then a fight over actual ideas.
Hence why the 2 big parties opposed the AV ref. Any change is a disadvantage to them.
The only way we will ever change our political system. Is if a majority of voters consider doing so to be a higher priority then any other political issue. And vote for a party or coalition that has that as its main goal. Without that level of commitment. The 2 main parties will always find a way to split opposition and allow one of them to gain a majority of MPs.
Apologies for not being specific. I was responding to the statement about even Reform not having enough votes for a majority. As you've pointed out what I meant to say was that:
No single party would need a majority. Instead they could form a majority in collaboration with other parties to form a coalition solely to enact electoral reform.
At present the Reform party are splitting the conservative vote, in fact I think they were polling above them recently. Reform claim to be in favour of Proportional Representation. If that's true then there's a legit possibility that a coalition could be formed between parties across the political spectrum to finally ditch FPTP.
Remember we saw these numbers in 2010.
But no party below 30% can gain the seat count needed to force the larger parties. The 2 main parties would rather fight for FPTP then alliw smaller parties to gain equality.
So as I said. Getting lib dems greens or reform to form the largets party is the only way a coalution would work.
If all smallnparties agreed PR was the only way and a coalution before the election was agreed. Maybe. But that is not going to happen with the current 3rd parties.
Now. If we (god not me we as no fickers gonna vote for me) but we as in those who think FPTP is over. Formed a party just to end fptp. And promised a new electoon as soon as it was removed. That may stand a chance of actually winning a majoroty.
But (and its a big one) the 2 main party would center the fight on what happens if something big happens before that 2nd election.
We would fight the whole election on fearnof every single issue the tories and labout can i vent to happe. I. The year or sonit would take to rebuild our democratic syseem.
Actually reform dosent. Thay have about 25%. And while that is the largest party.
Normally 30+ is needed for a majority and even then. They are needed in the right place to gain MPs. With current numbers and distribution. Reform would likely lead to a weak tory coalition. Ie both parties only just haveing 50% of MPs. And reform would likey only have a few more then now.
It may even lead to a lib dem major party coalition. Just because lib dems vots are more centralised onto certain constituancies.
But lib dems recent history may mean while that os doable They refuse.
This is one of the unique messesbof fptp numbers are less clear until yoy get into the 33% mark. Then the seat numbers start to grow rapidly.
I'm fairly sure you've misunderstood what I was saying