this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2025
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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Climate change target of 2C is ‘dead’, says renowned climate scientist (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago (3 children)

Global pledges and targets, if reached leave us with 2.1C. That was before the US elected Trump again, which means not pledges and commitments from them. Also obviously pledges and targets have to be reached and that gave us 2.7C. That again was before Trump was elected again and the massive problems the second largest emitter being activly hostile to climate action brings. So it will not just be the US, Trump has already anounced that he is working to sell more US oil and gas, which means making other countries emit more.

So yeah he is probably right. It can be changed, but that is going to a bloody hard journey.

[–] RunawayFixer 1 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Were those pledges from before or after February 2022?

February 2022 is when Russia expanded their invasion of Ukraine. A lot of the gas that Russia is not exporting to the eu anymore, is now being flared off instead, and I wonder if that is included in those predictions.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

All pledges made until November 2024. Also Russia does flare a lot, but that is wasting resources. They prefer to sell it or keep it in the ground. I can not find numbers for 2024, but in 2023 they flared 28bcm of gas and in 2019 it was about 20bcm. So they do flare gas, but not even close to as much as they used to export to the EU.

[–] RunawayFixer 1 points 1 day ago

Thanks for looking it up. It does look a lot less bad than I expected.