this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2025
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I kind of suspect this is as much about A.I. progress hitting a wall as anything else. It doesn’t seem like any of the LLMs are improving much between versions anymore. The U.S. companies were just throwing more compute (and money/electricity) at the problem and seeing small gains but it’ll be awhile before the next breakthrough.
Kind of like self-driving cars during their hype cycle. They felt tantalizingly close 10 years ago or so but then progress stalled and it’s been a slow grind ever since.
I think with a lot of technologies the first 95% is easy but the last 5% becomes exponentially harder.
With LLMs though I think the problem is conflating them with other forms of intelligence.
They're amazingly good at forming sentences, but they're unable to do real actual work.
It's called the 80/20 rule. The first 80% is the easy part.
Yeah. I really dislike this "rule" because it's commonly espoused by motivational speakers and efficiency "experts" saying you make 80% of your money from 20% of your time.
It sounds great if you've never heard it before but in practice it just means "be more efficient" and is not really actionable.