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Kinda seems like Russia is getting fucked up pretty badly already and they haven't even taken one country. Seems doubtful they would have much luck against an alliance.
If the US leaves that alliance and then starts surreptitiously sending drone parts to Russia, it'll get dicey.
If the AfD forms a coalition government with the normal conservatives and Germany decides to turn inwards and keep Deutsche money für die Deutscher, it'll get dicey.
If Macron finally completes his heel turn and appoints Marine le Pen to interior secretary...
If Italy keeps going the way they've been going...
If the Finnish right decides that joining NATO was a mistake that let too many minorities in...
If the rest of Africa goes along with the Sahel nations and starts funneling their resources into the Russian war machine...
If Modhi lets Russia open more factories in India...
If China decides that they're cool with sharing power on the global scale and fully buys in on the BRICS bloc...
Russia looks weak right now because the invasion has been such and embarrassment, but that can change surprisingly quickly. The global shift towards authoritarianism is coming hand-in-hand with a shift away from US/Eurocentric hegemony.
Code review came back. Too many nested ifs.
These arent nested. Any of these can happen independently and any one of them happening makes some others more likely to happen too.
Each of them adds to shifting the balance of power and noone knows where the breaking point is.
Of course there is also a few IFs going the other way around, or were we just know it will have an impact but not which way
If the Russian people get fed up with the economy...
If Putin dies...
If Trump dies...
If Xi dies...
If there is an escalation in South East Asia...
If there is a further escalation in West Asia...
If there is a major climate event in Russia/Eastern Europe/Western Europe/North America...
They will if they have the US backing them.
Still seems like they'd get their shit wrecked if they started a war with Europe, even with help.
You vastly underestimate the size and power of the US military. This isn't even a brag; it's atrocious that our military is so large, but the US would have little trouble taking on Europe.
That's what they said about Afghanistan too though. Plus, the odds of the US getting directly involved in a war against Europe any time soon are still pretty damn low.