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I actually think the fediverse is going to fracture very quickly. You're going to have instances that will defederate with anyone that permits the slightest bit of anti-trans commenting and you're going to have instances that will make 4chan look inclusive and will defederate from anyone posting "woke bullshit"
Ive posted on here before that its only a matter of time before someone like Volkswagen-Audi start their own instance so they can control the narrative and push their own content too.
And I can ABSOLUTELY see paid only instances for well moderated kid friendly content and also hardcore porn.
Yes, it will fracture, but hopefully at the fringes, as you mentioned. So thsie with extreme views find it difficult to get traction due to lack of users or lack of places to post.
It should mean that we don't get brigading from communities. You can just block them. It should.nean that there are safer communities but they miss out on some content.
At the moment, the only large communities are general. That may change over time. I do hope that companies start their own instances. Not to control the narrative, but to be their official communication. I don't want commercial users using the community instances.
Again, then, they can be blocked but also, they can be verified.
The issue as I see it is that once Meta or someone similar can start pointing to far right instances, child abuse materials or anything of the like and start painting Lemmy as a whole as the new 4chan "radicalising and grooming the children" only to release their "new app" which is just their instance then the "free fediverse" is going to BE the fringe.
Large companies will have no desire to be involved with "that place" because the sanitised, community guidelines having, data farming goliath will have 2 billion users. Why risk the bad pr?
Why risk the bad PR of being on meta when you can be on your own instance that any other instance can access.
It's like email. People don't hold Google responsible if someone emails them with profanity.
I expect there will be sanitised versions and free for all versions. Moderation will differentiate but it may be that it's send regulated, like porn on NSFW instances.
One thing I've noticed is that I've blocked the NSFW instance from my feed and any comments from there are blocked too. So users from instances with a lot of NSFW content may find they have less engagement. L it may be that more regulated instances have less freedom of speech but more people to listen.
Likely the realiry will be somewhere in the middle.
I think you have a very optimistic outlook on people. We understand how the fediverse works but I wouldnt trust most people to differentiate between the app and the content it serves.