this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2024
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This sounds pretty plausible. The windows user is the least likely to understand the implications of arm for their applications in the ecosystem that is the least likely to accommodate any change. Microsoft likes to hedge their bets but generally does not have a reason to prefer arm over x86, their revenue opportunity is the same either way. Application vendors not particularly motivated yet because there's low market share and no reason to expect windows on x86 to go anywhere.
Just like last time around, windows and x86 are inextricably tied together. Windows is built on decades of backwards compatibility in a closed source world and ARM is anathema to x86 windows application compatibility.
Apple forced processor architecture changes because they wanted them, but Microsoft doesn't have the motive.
This has next to nothing to do with the technical qualities of the processor, but it's just such a crappy ecosystem to try to break into on its own terms.