this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2024
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Interesting that you seem to assume that Harris would have done better with the people who didn't vote than with the people who did.
A Democrats losing the popular vote to a Republican by 1% is a huge margin. What matters isn't the entire population, it's the swing voters.
Democrats straddle the desires of their wealthy patrons and the desires of voters. They always try to give the people just enough to scrape by. The result is that we consistently have elections with tight margins. Democrats are playing a game of high stakes chicken every election.
You're assuming that the entire 1% were swing voters. So no. It's not a huge margin.
Ok average nearly half the country votes, every year. Yeah - that number should be way up - but 75% of those votes wouldn't matter. That's the point/problem.
If at least 1% over the electorate is swing voters, then that definitionally makes up the critical 1% Trump margin. That's just what swing voters are.
The actual margin is more like 4-5% when you consider the extra votes Democrats need to win the electoral college.