It would take a strong defeat (e.g. loss of occupied territories not only in Ukraine, but also Georgia, Moldova and loss of Belarus). They are unfortunately really petty and it would piss them off to no end if our countries became successful and independent.

Perhaps I am too biased against russians, but some sort of global ostracization would be helpful. Not allowing russian citizens into EU, US, Australia.

And most importantly a prolonged period of economic decline.

Yeah, Navalniy and his crew have zero influence inside the country and they are not really looking to do anything beyond YT videos. They don't really want to fight. They are malicious grifters that at best run an online discussion community for somewhat liberal leaning russians.

Their pride stems from imperialism and "being feared". They are no where near recognizing that they have the capability to build a better world for themselves. Not to mention they just can't stop themselves from digging a deeper hole, that exponentially increases the cost of action.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Most russian people haven't left their region at all, except on annual holiday trips. With current prices and the withering weight of rouble, it's unlikely someone who doesn't do higher mid tier wages can travel outside of Russia. I'd probably advocate instead on closing programs allowing to gain citizenship by investments and creating a business. That's how rich russians who have a significant econonical impact get their foreign passports.

I'm not sure how territorial\political losses or economical decline would make russians frustrated rn. With a total grasp on local media, Tzar can easily put a blame on other states and for his followers it works. They do sell the myth of capturing others is the way to go, and that it needs some sacrifices.

I think you've been caught in a trap of thinking russian commoners are somehow different to others. Vatniks aren't an unique occasion, and it seems a lot of countries are vulnerable to have them, especially if authporitarian states put effort to nurture a culture of useful idiots somewhere else like Russia does in bordering states.

Maybe my bias is directly opposite to yours.

[–] Agent_Karyo 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I’m not sure how territorial\political losses or economical decline would make russians frustrated rn. With a total grasp on local media, Tzar can easily put a blame on other states and for his followers it works. They do sell the myth of capturing others is the way to go, and that it needs some sacrifices.

I am not saying it's a magical solution. But their only hope for a better life (democracy, government respecting their rights and not being able to just randomly kill people, addressing corruption) is them understanding that their dreams of empire are over and that they will be treated as they treat others (no visiting Europe). They can keep playing the victim, it's all up to them.

I think you’ve been caught in a trap of thinking russian commoners are somehow different to others. Vatniks aren’t an unique occasion, and it seems a lot of countries are vulnerable to have them, especially if authporitarian states put effort to nurture a culture of useful idiots somewhere else like Russia does in bordering states.

That's where I will strongly disagree with you. I will even go as far as saying this sort of attitude (and variants) of it is a key enabler of russian degeneracy.

I've lived in several countries in North American, Europe and Asia (several years each) and you're right there are "vatniks" everywhere. However, what is unique about russian chauvinism is 1. It's brutality and self-important backwardness. 2. The level to which it is universal across any and all demographic group; chauvinism and genocidal imperialism is the defining aspect of russian culture. That is not true for all countries.

Russians are still stuck in an 18th century colonial mindset. They reflexively gravitate towards taking land and forcing occupied people to become russian. While the rest of the world has largely moved on more efficient forms of geolpolitcal influence. And this is true for North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa.

Support for genocidal imperialism has a strong majority across all demographic. You can slice the population by age, education, rural vs urban, income, federal district and still get a strong majority support for genocidal imperialism. Different quantitative methodologies, qualitative research, longitudinal studies; it all leads to dark, black hole of cruel and crude imperialistic mindset that dominates all priorities (even the well being of their own children).

This is not the case for all countries. There is been a lot of news about Hindu-nationalism in India. But even in India (a country much poorer and less education than russia), there is a modicum of internal cultural dynamism. You have the muslim minority. People in the south have their own language and culture. The Bengalis in the west have linguistic and kinship ties with their muslim cousins in Bangladesh.

Or consider the US, you have a lot of "vatniks" there too (I always found it entertaining how such a large portion of American are "experts" on constitutional law), but you still have some sort of internal sociopolitical dynamism. I believe US leadership has apologized for genocide against the native American population? Have you ever heard of any apology russians about the countless genocides they implemented over just the last 100 years?

And the West continues to ignore the russians' deep rooted and near universal commitment to genocidal imperialism. The West continue to coddle the russians with their child-like fairy tales of the population not supporting putin and genocidal imperialism.

They need to understand that won't be able to play dumb. They can play the victims and say that "you're playing into putins hands" or "you're discriminating against russians"; or they can start thinking on what they need to do change things. It's their choice.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

We may disagree with each other but I like to read your thoughts. I'm just pondering the idea of if Russia just have their government magically replaced with someone else's, would the culture you say persist for more than a decade. I'm sceptical it would. It kinda erases the responsibility and agency of russian people themselves, making them look like empty vessels to what their powerholders put in them, but with how some thoughts about current war overtook them overnight, made them replicate these, makes me think they just don't have a nurtured own position on most things because they are degraded to lower levels of Maslou pyramid and thus don't hold their own beliefs but constantly cowardly adapt to whatever is in the news.

[–] Agent_Karyo 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Thank you for the good convo as well!

I’m just pondering the idea of if Russia just have their government magically replaced with someone else’s, would the culture you say persist for more than a decade.

I maybe wouldn't phrase in that way, but I do agree that russians are capable of change. There is nothing inherent or unchangeable about their chauvinism.

I think their current situation (authoritarianism, broad support for genocidal imperialism) is a product of their own choices, not some sort of essential chauvinistic quality of russians.

But to get to a state where they can replace their government, they need to be frank about the root causes of their predicament.

They have to clearly and openly condemn imperialism (including their actions in Chechnya).

They have to recognize that the root cause of putin's rule is not some external scapegoat. It is the russian people. They elected him in 2000 (widely considered a more or less free election). They elected him again 2004 even after he shut down all independent TV stations. They went with comical medvedev seat warming exercise in 2008, there was no pushback against their invasion of Georgia. They again allowed to him to come to power in 2012 and there was no pushback to the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea.

You can't both claim that the elections are illegitimate, while also partaking in them and calling to vote for openly chauvinist parties that are well know to be directly managed by the Kremlin as fake opposition.

But instead we get some fake platitude about how putin does not reflect the russian people and "What is the EU's strategy on russia?"

I don't see any real desire to take actions that would allow russians to nurture their own position on things. It doesn't have to be that way, but it is.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

The truth I don't want to believe in, lol. But seeing the latest elections and talking to people gives your points, not mine, a ton of weight. And I probably insist on a possible awakening\redemption arc because I don't know what to do with that on the day-to-day basis if that's not possible, if people selling me groceries are irredeameable bastards who cheer to the pain induced onto others, but that's on me trying to stay sane.

Either way, back to the OP: death to the russian empire, glory to Ukraine and fuck me for I'd probably only play that UE5 game on Youtube if I sell some organs (: