politics
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
view the rest of the comments
Is this graph even realistic? The only way it makes sense is if they poll the same voters over and over again that keep switching sides for whatever reason. I don’t think a realistic polling graph would have such a defined pattern.
Polls don’t just keep asking the same people — they sample different groups to reflect the broader electorate, which is constantly evolving. People change their minds based on new information, campaign events, and media coverage. Suggesting that the graph isn’t "realistic" because it shows fluctuations is naive. Voters aren’t locked into their decisions months in advance, and it’s ridiculous to expect a smooth, static line. Polling is supposed to capture the fluid nature of public opinion. The fact that you think a realistic graph shouldn’t show this ebb and flow shows a complete misunderstanding of both polling methods and voter behavior. The defined patterns you’re questioning are exactly what you should expect in a competitive, dynamic election.
You misunderstood my comment. My exact problem with the graph is that its 2 mirrored lines. You’re right people change their minds all the time. The data from the graph suggests that as 1 person shifted to from trump, they went to Kamala and vice versa. That wouldn’t be the case unless they polled the same group of people over the year.
A trend of the same sample of people is meaningless over the course of a year. All this graph shows is this group of people are undecided voters and will continue to be undecided going into November.
Edit: didn’t realize this graph is a model and doesn’t reflect any polling. It’s a meaningless graph.
Your response shows that you’re still fundamentally misunderstanding how polling models and graphs work. The mirrored lines don’t imply that the exact same people are shifting back and forth between Trump and Harris. Polling aggregates track the broader electorate, not individuals, and as different groups are polled, the graph reflects overall trends in public sentiment. It’s not about a fixed sample of people being tracked throughout the year.
When one candidate rises while the other falls, it doesn’t mean voters are just switching between the two in a perfect one-to-one ratio—it shows that overall support for each candidate is fluctuating as a result of multiple factors, including undecided voters making up their minds, shifts in enthusiasm, and reactions to campaign events. You seem to be imagining this graph as a static sample over time, but it’s capturing a much larger and more fluid electorate. Reducing it to just a few undecided voters misses the entire point of tracking these dynamics across the country.
Claiming that this graph “just shows undecided voters” is a massive oversimplification and shows a lack of understanding about how public opinion tracking works. This isn’t about a small group flipping back and forth; it’s about broader shifts in voter sentiment that polling aggregates are designed to capture.
The lines don't show popular vote, but chance to win. And either Trump or Harris is going to win, so p(Harris) = 1 - p(Trump). The lines must mirror each other. Since polls always have uncertainties and current events influence voting behaviors, of course the exact percentages fluctuate.