this post was submitted on 06 Oct 2024
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/c/CFB Poll Top 25 Fanaticus
1. Oregon Oregon
2. Ohio State Ohio State
3. Texas Texas
4. Notre Dame Notre Dame
5. Penn State Penn State
6. Georgia Georgia
7. ~~Indiana~~ Indiana
8. ~~Alabama~~ Alabama
T-9. ~~Ole Miss~~ Mississippi
T-9. South Carolina South Carolina
11. SMU SMU
12. Tennessee Tennessee
13. ~~Army~~ Army
T-14. Miami Miami
T-14. Boise State Boise State
16. ~~Texas A&M~~ Texas A&M
17. Clemson Clemson
18. Tulane Tulane
19. ~~Colorado~~ Colorado
20. ~~BYU~~ BYU
21. Iowa State Iowa State
T-22. Kansas State Kansas State
T-22. Arizona State Arizona State
24. Missouri Missouri
25. USC USC

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c/cfb Week 7 Poll (self.cfb)
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by g0d0fm15ch13f to c/[email protected]
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https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfddEB6vxcxfJVhO-f3l1F0g8Z_Q-_TTaa9MDSuEs8KDSrQrA/viewform?usp=sf_link

This might be the most excited I've ever been for our community poll, this will be up through Wednesday and I'll post results on Thursday

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 month ago (1 children)
  1. Texas
  2. Ohio State
  3. Oregon
  4. Penn State
  5. Miami
  6. Georgia
  7. Iowa State
  8. BYU
  9. Alabama
  10. Boise State
  11. Clemson
  12. Ole Miss
  13. Tennessee
  14. Missouri
  15. Utah
  16. Texas A&M
  17. LSU
  18. Oklahoma
  19. Notre Dame
  20. Indiana
  21. Kansas State
  22. Pitt
  23. Army
  24. Navy
  25. Liberty

A quick overview of my methodology. I’m sure you can find contradictions, but I do try to stick to this.

At this point in the season, I try to make the ranking 25% how good I think the team actually is, and 75% what the resume says. As we go on, the resume gets more bias.

A few principles that I try to apply.

  1. If you are 5-0 or better, I’ll put you in. It is hard enough to get there, that even with an easier schedule, it should get you ranked. I do this for 2 reasons. First, I want to reward winning. Second, if greater 6 teams never get ranked despite what they do on the field, why bother to say they are apart of the league? Even if all these greater 6 drop a game, I’ll still try to put one or two of them up there, if I can justify it.
  2. I try to use a blind resume, where you consider the resume’s content regardless of the name. The biggest effect that this has is that I effectively ignore head to head. You can look at my poll, and complain that I ranked Georgia above Alabama, and cry afoul that Alabama beat Georgia, and should be ahead. I don’t care, because Georgia has a better resume than Alabama. You can make the same complaint against my Texas A&M/Notre Dame ranking. It doesn’t change my results.
  3. I value bad losses more than I do good wins. Again, going with Alabama and Georgia, I put more weight on the fact that Alabama lost to Vanderbilt, then I do that Alabama beat Georgia. I value reliability. If you can’t show up for the “easy wins”, then I will punish you much more than I will reward you for showing up for the big games.
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I like your reasoning and appreciate the explanation, so please don't interpret this comment as me taking issue with your ballot. I am curious about Missouri at 14 and LSU at 17 though. What on their resumes pushes them up that high, especially considering the bad losses factor? By your logic, it seems like some of the undefeated teams should be ahead of them (especially Indiana given that they have a common opponent with LSU and beat them much more decisively). SMU's absence feels conspicuous also when you have BYU as high as 8.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

No, please poke holes in my poll. I spend time on it, but this is the first real year I have actually put pen to paper.

For LSU and Missouri, the cop out answer is that is the 25% of the ballot I give to supposed team quality. Realistically, it shouldn't have that big of an effect though. Those are 2 teams that, after looking at their schedule just now, I was surprised how weak all their opponents were . I feel a bit bad, because using my metrics, they should be lower. Maybe 3-5 spots each, some where in that range. The good news is, at least LSU will have a chance to make a point this weekend against Ole Miss. That game will make a much bigger difference than me re-evaluating.

Indiana I still feel fine on. Their schedule hasn't been impressive. I think the Nebraska game in 2 weeks is the first real challenge they will face. If they perform well, they will see a jump.

SMU was on the short list to get ranked, but with my rule of ranking 5-0 teams, they got cut. Kansas state is the lowest ranked one loss team in my ranking, and I would take them over SMU.