It's not 5-d chess, it's simple politics of weakening potential rivals. If you look at history literally the same thing was done even by ancient hegemonies, it has even popular Latin name - "Divide et impera". USA is global hegemon and acts globally.

I grew up in the evangelical movement. I heard over and over and over again (some variation of this) when I was a kid, “The nation that refuses to aid Israel will fall! All of those who turn their backs on the Jews will burn when god returns.”

Those people are deadly serious too. It wouldn’t matter what Israel does.

That's too 5-d chess for "the US" to pull off.

It is not a complicated strategy. It just requires a large group that cares about the petrodollar. The US has a ton of those people in high places in government and finance.

The US invented the petrodollar.

I find it more plausible that the US supports Israel because Israel has a lot of powerful supporters in the US who manipulate public opinion and government policy.

Israel has powerful supporters in the US because it is in the interests of capital to support Israel. The higher interests of capital do understand why the Middle East must be destabilized for their own gain. They are fully aware of and influence, for example, the invasion to control Iraq's oil fields and depose the government of Iraq that was acting too sovereign about it. Same for the Syrian oil fields seized and controlled by the US to this day. This is also why the US promotes the Saudis as an ally - they stabilize the petrodollar system. It is no coincidence that they also target an independent Yemem.

Powerful supporters are just the middlemen for capital, as are major media campaigns. It is not explanatory to say that powerful people support a country or policy. Of course they must do so, that is how every policy decision happens: the powerful people fall in line with the decisions of capital, decisions that may have been made decades ago but are now entrenched. Capital also leverages its close collaboration with the highest levels of the state. The White House is constantly consulting finance, economic advisors from finance, think tanks built to advance the interests of finance, etc (finance is the dominsnt wing of caoital in the US). And in the other direction, capital is constantly making threats and PR pushes.

It self-consciously is the reason: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYLNCcLfIkM

Israel only has lobbying groups that are allowed to operate in American politics because the US was already dedicated to zionism. Otherwise there'd be, like, a Chinese AIPAC lobbying for the PRC or something.

It’s so shameful what greed and broken electoral finance laws in the U.S. have done to the country. Right now, an investment of a few million by a PAC can turn into billions of dollars from the government, via direct aid, passing laws, or simply looking the other way if a company isn’t being too obviously evil.

The primaries this year were highly telling in that regard - politicians were being nakedly bought in plain sight, but, again, because “you don’t fuck with the money” it’s not a question in political circles of whether overhauling campaign finance should be undertaken.

Israel has amassed such an arsenal, it can continue this shit on it's own for a good while. An arms embargo would still be appropriate though

No way. First they can't use some of those weapons without US approval. They're made that way. Second, if they were running a more normal terror campaign (like shock and awe for example) that'd be correct, but they're not. They're carpet bombing Gaza and Lebanon using "precision" airstrikes. It's an incredibly wasteful method of genocide that only has the advantage of being able to say "but we're targeting terrorists". No way they can keep up this nonsense without unlimited US weapons. Third, Israel would be eaten alive by its neighbors without US diplomatic (or "diplomatic") support. Do you understand how much support any middle eastern leader would get by sayint "We'll go fight Israel to save our Palestinian brothers"? The only reason it's not happening and even Iran is leaving the job to its militias is because of the US carrot and stick.