(Blue is Biden, Purple is Kamala, Orange is Newsom, Cyan is Whitmer, Burgundy is Obama)
this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2024
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Neoliberal
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I do agree that Georgia is probably not happening. To say the margins were razor thin in 2020 is an understatement. If I recall, it was only by 11,000 votes. Trump and the Republicans have been working overtime to make sure that doesn’t happen again.
As for right now, an Emerson Swing State poll shows:
If I recall, this same poll had Trump up around 10 points a week ago with Biden at the top of the ticket, and most of these are still within the margin of error. Emerson also overestimated Republican support in 2022, but I note that results tend to be different when Trump is not on the ballot. It’s also less than a week since Harris took over, and this is probably including Trump’s attempted assassination bump and convention bump.
Harris is only just starting to campaign and hasn’t even picked a running mate yet. So, I think we will have to wait until maybe next week to see what things actually look like. It’s possible we won’t actually get a good picture until after the DNC, too.
I also have a hunch (read - no real data lol) that at least some third-party support this election cycle was protesting not just Biden and Trump, but also the age of both candidates; now that one of them is a young, spry 59 years old, I do think some will may over to Harris.
2022 had poor MAGA turnout, Trump was at his weakest in the party late 2022 and early 2023 and for a bit it looked like DeSantis would take over the movement as the 'smarter Trump', until he opened his mouth of course