(Blue is Biden, Purple is Kamala, Orange is Newsom, Cyan is Whitmer, Burgundy is Obama)
this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2024
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Neoliberal
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Forgot to mention, but there's also Cornell West. He was originally a Green, then a Peoples Party(THE Bernie Bro party) candidate, and then Green again and now he's independent with some micro parties on his side. He's polling only slightly behind Stein and is actually ahead of Chase Oliver. He's black, he's progressive, he's got a civil rights record, and he's a church boy. Annnd he's about to get on the Georgia ballot. Which is also Chase "Abortion good, unemployment bad" Olivers best state. And I think Stein will also be on the ballot there.
Can we at least agree Georgia isn't fucking happening?
I do agree that Georgia is probably not happening. To say the margins were razor thin in 2020 is an understatement. If I recall, it was only by 11,000 votes. Trump and the Republicans have been working overtime to make sure that doesn’t happen again.
As for right now, an Emerson Swing State poll shows:
If I recall, this same poll had Trump up around 10 points a week ago with Biden at the top of the ticket, and most of these are still within the margin of error. Emerson also overestimated Republican support in 2022, but I note that results tend to be different when Trump is not on the ballot. It’s also less than a week since Harris took over, and this is probably including Trump’s attempted assassination bump and convention bump.
Harris is only just starting to campaign and hasn’t even picked a running mate yet. So, I think we will have to wait until maybe next week to see what things actually look like. It’s possible we won’t actually get a good picture until after the DNC, too.
I also have a hunch (read - no real data lol) that at least some third-party support this election cycle was protesting not just Biden and Trump, but also the age of both candidates; now that one of them is a young, spry 59 years old, I do think some will may over to Harris.
2022 had poor MAGA turnout, Trump was at his weakest in the party late 2022 and early 2023 and for a bit it looked like DeSantis would take over the movement as the 'smarter Trump', until he opened his mouth of course