this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
93 points (87.8% liked)

politics

18853 readers
5287 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
  2. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  3. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  4. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
  5. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  6. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

Register To Vote

Citizenship Resource Center

Congressional Awards Program

Federal Government Agencies

Library of Congress Legislative Resources

The White House

U.S. House of Representatives

U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

News

World News

Business News

Political Discussion

Ask Politics

Military News

Global Politics

Moderate Politics

Progressive Politics

UK Politics

Canadian Politics

Australian Politics

New Zealand Politics

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

Reminder that you guys should go out and vote. Trump has been ahead since September 2023. Don’t let the echo chamber make you feel like it’s a done deal. That’s what I thought until I saw this article.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I think people who place bets on politicians are not a great representation of the whole population. Biden was behind Trump by a lot too.

[–] Pronell 6 points 1 month ago

Betting markets also work based on available information.

Harris hasn't really started campaigning but the betting markets are getting money down for her and as such adjust the odds.

I also want to point out that these articles also act as an advertisement for the betting markets.

I don't expect anyone to stop posting about them but this is one way they gain business - getting stories published during notable events to bring in the suckers.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

These people aren't placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.

If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%