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The Democrats have won nationally in 2018, 2020, arguably 2022, and like 85% of special elections since 2016. What the fuck are you talking about? They’ve been basically non-stop winning elections since 2016.
Not only that, Republicans often begin undermining their opponent's reputation from day one, spending nearly four years focused on convincing the public that Biden is ineffective. Now, all that effort is erased at the most crucial time of the election. They no longer have years to shape public perception. This sets the stage for a fairer fight, and Harris is a more compelling speaker than Biden. I believe It was a good play.
I saw some articles that Trump is furious that Biden dropped out. I think Trump is very aware of this.
Another thought is that Joe has to campaign while still being president, whereas Harris can focus almost all her energy on campaigning. I believe this alone will make a big difference.
And yet we still don’t have abortion protections, gunshot wounds are the #1 cause of death in children, the housing market is on fire, the “minimum wage should be $15” conversation has been going on for so long that it should be nearly $30 now, there is an activist republican supermajority in the SCOTUS, and there are openly fascist candidates as republican front runners because the Overton window has shifted so far right.
Democrats haven’t been winning elections because people have been excited about good democrat candidates; They have been winning because democrat voters are terrified of a republican in office.