this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2024
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I'm not sure I'd put much stock in modern polling.
A study suggests the debate had very little impact, but even if it didn't, historically, changing candidates this late hasn't worked out.
https://boingboing.net/2024/07/10/impacts-of-the-presidential-debate-far-overestimated.html
Discussion aside, wtaf is boingboing.net? I'm even hesitant to click that link.
Reliable pollsters are accurate albeit snapshots in time.
Aggregate reliable polls even more so.
Nate Silver's algorithm is over 90% accurate in its prediction model across thousands of races over the years.
Cook Political Report is the gold standard.
Even internal polls reported by democratic Congressional campaigns as well as the President's team themselves admit they're behind.
They were 10 points up at this time in 2020.
If you aren't going off this, what ARE you going off of, vibes? In one breath you say don't put stock in polls, then point to an outlier? I mean, what!?
So you can't comfort me saying that when Biden should've come out 1 step ahead from that debate, he is not maybe only 1 step back as he has been for ages, but possibly 2 steps back.
How do you not know boingboing.net?
Anyway, that's not the source, but Rawstory doesn't allow ad-blockers, so I linked that synopsis.
https://www.rawstory.com/rs-exclusive/biden-debate-2668724330/
None of those, including my link, is accurate enough to really matter, especially this far from the election.
Thanks. Yeah I genuinely never heard of that site in my life. Seems like it's been around since forever, too.
To be fair, it used to be a much better, more relevant site, which I only remember because I've been around since forever too.
Unfortunately, historically, a split like this is unprecedented. By coming out against Biden publicly, Democratic congressmembers have forced the issue, and it's not going to result in Biden remaining our best chance, even IF he would have remained our best chance had they remained publicly silent.