this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2024
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We already know Trump is abominable. But tons of people still fall for him… so we want someone who has the strength to defeat him… It’s not complicated. Biden needs to stand aside and give Dems the best chance we can get.
Which is who, exactly?
According to the Ipsos poll, Michelle Obama, who beats Trump by 11 points.
Even Harris polls 2 points higher than Biden, believe it or not. Biden has had the lowest approval ratings in the history of modern polling, so finding a replacement that polls better than him wouldn't actually be that difficult.
I don't think the incumbent advantage is as meaningful when you're literally the least popular president of the 20th and 21st centuries. And, yes, that includes Trump. Think about that.
Plus, why do people act like the "incumbent advantage" is some magical advantage? It's a cargo cult mentality, especially in this day and age where all the old "rules" about elections have gone out the window.
I mean, I remember the day where being twice-impeached and a convicted felon would be unrecoverable political death, yet here we are staring down the barrel of a possible second Trump term.
Biden is a historically unpopular president, who is behind in basically all polling in basically every key swing state, and who just had the mother of all "the emperor has no clothes" moments on national television, losing the confidence of his own base. Even Democratic congresspeople are calling on him to step down now.
There is simply no path forwards for Biden to win in November. He's cooked.
As for replacements, personally, I think Gretchen Whitmer is the best choice. Relatively young, good compromise candidate between the progressive and moderate wings of the party, current beloved governor of Michigan (key swing state!), competent technocrat, no significant political baggage, and made a name for herself protecting abortion rights in Michigan after SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade.
Whitmer polled 4 points lower than Biden against Trump. The best polling candidates are Buttigieg, Newsom, Harris, and, obviously, M. Obama, who polls as winning in a landslide but has said she will not run under any circumstances.