movies

Excellent analysis that torpedoes a lot of explanations for this slow year.

In 2024, the domestic box office will be in its 22nd year of sustained decline. And due to the pandemic, audiences are behaving as though they’re between 32 to 37 years into this decline. Fewer than two thirds of Americans still go to the movies, and on average, they will purchase just about 3 tickets annually (hence the average American buying about 2). The practically addressable number of tickets is even more modest as a handful of signature releases each year (e.g. an Avengers, Jurassic, Avatar, Despicable Me) will devour 5-10% each. These constraints mean that the box office – audiences – won’t support many films, or many great films. The misses will consistently surprise moviegoers, critics, stars, and reviewers. This is not a new challenge, per se, but it has never before been more brutal (note that while the modern dominance of comicbook movies is often likened to the heydays of Westerns, Westerns thrives at a time where Americans headed to the theater 20-35x a year!). This will have to change budgets, talent incentives, risk proclivities, franchise plans, and more.

This is key, I feel. If people are going only three times a year, they are going to the biggest most hyped films as it is less of a risk.

Still, changes are probably due. An independently operated MoviePass was always a dumb idea, but to renew frequent moviegoers, it’s clear that some form of AYCE subscription or subscription perk will be required. AMC A-List is a good start, but doesn’t Disney+ have an additional tier (perhaps Disney++) that provides free or discounted tickets to Disney films while they are in theaters? For that matter, distributors should sell premium movie tickets that include EST entitlements or discounts (this may not increase attendance, but it should increase total revenue per customers).

I have the Odeon's pass and it pays for itself if you go twice a month - I go twice a week and 5 times last week.

Some recent changes should probably be unwound, too. While rapid PVOD windows have helped some money-losing films recover their investments, this model probably just trains audiences to skip uncertain releases because they might be available at home in three weeks anyway.

This seems like an important change - if the cinema is the only place to see a film for a while, then they will go back to the cinema.