this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2024
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No Stupid Questions

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 6 months ago (1 children)

This conclusion, while weakly supported by a statistical analysis of the names involved, is rejected by most archaeologists, theologians, linguistic and biblical scholars.

There's a bunch of references for archaeologists debunking it.

I know you said "it might not be him" but I feel like that understates the weight of evidence against that possibility.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

The respectable probability estimates range from astronomically unlikely to merely unlikely. In other words, we don't have incontrovertible ways of calculating the probability.

While it's not great or convincing evidence, it's the only physical evidence I know about.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

We might not be able to calculate the probability but we can conclude that the chances that this tomb is that of Jesus is infinitesimal.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

If you can't calculate the probability, then you can't rationally reach the conclusion that the probability is very low.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Of course you can.

I'm unable to calculate the probability that the moon will fall out of the sky tonight but I know that the probability is very low.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn't fall out of sky).

You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude.

They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren't true, there'd be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

If you're happy with this type of calculation then the probability that this tomb is that of biblical Jesus is (number of occupants) / (number of humans in that area at the time the tomb was built).

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

That's way too low since several of the names match.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 months ago

Enough. Feel free to continue believing that, on the balance of probabilities, this tomb is that of the really real Jesus.