this post was submitted on 20 Jun 2024
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I'm not so sure. While I don't necessarily have a positive outlook on the future of American politics, I think the Democratic party is in a really good spot at the moment. The Republican party is completely beholden to one person right now. They are in a very, very bad spot re: extremism in their party. It's essentially their party platform. We're seeing the ramifications in the House, now. Their party is in disarray and is proving they can't manage to even govern themselves. Meanwhile, Democrats are capitalizing on that disarray by consolidating around abortion access, protecting democratic institutions, and willingness to actually get things done. We can see this in the immigration reform bill that Trump nuked -- that was set to be a huge policy win for conservatives and Democrats were willing to push it through.
If Trump loses this election, where does the Republican party have to go? They can't just conjure up another personality like Trump -- I think DeSantis proved that. They've alienated their moderate voters in favor of bigotry and disruption of the institutions they grew up with and helped maintain. Either they're going to have to revert to establishment, pre-Trump conservatism or double down on his insanity, further alienating the moderate Republicans. And where would those moderates go besides the Democratic party, which, while sure, is supportive of gender-affirming care (a knock for them), at least they are still willing to uphold capitalistic, business-centric values (or in other words, socialism for me, not for thee).
If Trump wins, then the Democratic party is still gonna be around and having a field day with all the issues he causes (see: Dobbs ruling). I dunno this may be a hot take but I could see the Republican party crumbling, and Democrats splitting into left and right camps. Maybe someone can check me, because the more I think about it the more I see Republicans as a fringe extremist group and Democrats as capitalists, and then me over here thinking to myself, "How could we seize collective ownership of Amazon and Google's computers?" lol
Denial, subversion and violence?
True, but that just isn't a maintainable party platform. There may be denial and violence in the short term, but at that point I think the Trumpian wing of the Republican party is in its death throes and is doomed.
That wing recently gained control of the GOP finances and has embedded itself pretty securely.
The one thing that they have going against them is that right-wing people hate losers and the weak.
Who knows how they'll react to another loss. I can see them shifting harder towards populism like the right-wing people in the UK and Canada have.
Problem with Trumpism is that it relies too heavily on Trump. Once he's out there isn't a solid or feasible successor. The factions supporting Trump won't go away but Trump is their best shot for immediate wins.
You're right, the ideology requires a personality that captivates their base like Trump and Boris Johnson do.