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I'm am going to correct myself a little.
I said not voting favours the incumbent. Currently that is less true then in the past. The principle has always been. People in your area will be more likely to vote for consistency. It is just a human nature thing. We avoid change. So the MP you have now is more likely to win. Unless many people are motivated to change.
This election is pretty unique. Even compared to 97. We have many many voters thinking like you. But outright hate in many tory traditional safe seats. Add the huge change in many borders.
Things are a little less predicable then ever. I'm still not a fan of the don't vote idea. But honestly have less data to challenge the logic.