this post was submitted on 21 May 2024
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The US Army War College published a paper outlining the plan awhile back.
If they attack Taiwan and let the chip factories burn. Does that mean they only cared about getting the land?
Of course not. There's glory, there's internal CCP politics, pooh bear's ego, claims over the South China Sea, reducing the US sphere of influence, the fulfilled narrative of a "united China", etc.
China doesn't stand to gain anything pragmatic by invading Taiwan. However humans, and dictators in particular, do not always act perfectly rationally and in the best interest of their nation.
Taiwan presents the same kind of military threat to China as Cuba presented to the US during the Cold War.
It's an excellent staging ground for bombing and the mountainous terrain to the west guards it from effective retaliation.
Even without a big chip factory, it presents an existential threat to the mainland only really matched by Korea or the Philippines.
I seriously doubt chips is the most important thing. Its more about Taiwan's geographic location, being a part of the first island chain / line of defense. And just the fact that CCP has been claiming it for a while and don't want to lose face (internally) by giving it up.
Also as a Taiwanese, fuck the scorched earth strategy. I rather the island be preserved for generations to come. The longest Chinese dynasty was Zhou Dynasty for ~800 years, but that was 1046 to 256 B.C.E., then Han Dynasty for ~400 years. It would totally suck ass and I rather not have that happen. But I believe the CCP will eventually come to pass anyway. None of us will be here if it was for 400 years, but I would hope Taiwan will still be around and just as beautiful and great in the far future. I'm hoping the CCP will disband yesterday.
An invasion would be incredibly costly, and would accomplish . . . what exactly? A final resolution to a civil war that barely anyone has a living memory of?
China wants TSMC. Rigging the whole thing to blow in the event of an invasion, and making it very public and very obvious that this is what will happen and cannot be stopped, is the best strategy to avoid that invasion.
It would move China's adversary further from its shores. Just like how America doesn't like Cuba being right there, with its rival politico- economic system, China doesn't like Taiwan being right there with its rival politico- economic system.
I agree that they want TSMC, but I think Taiwan's semi conductor disablement plan has more to do with guaranteeing international support for Taiwan than reducing the incentives for Chinese annexation of Taiwan.
What I mean is that Beijing can't say to the world "this is an internal disagreement that doesn't concern you" because if TSMC goes up in smoke the global economy is going to bottom out, it concerns everybody's economy. The fact that Beijing can't just seamlessly assume control of Taiwan means that the international community will not support that ambition. It's like Real Politik, but with semiconductors.
Ironically USA initiatives to protect itself from the vulnerability of Taiwan by (re?)patriating chip production will be bad for Taiwan's security... if they ever actually manage to rival TSMC's Taiwanese production. I say this because it will demote the conflict from one of global interest to just regional interest.
But that's all just my arm chair speculation, I don't actually have any idea what I'm talking about.
It doesn't seem like the suggestion would be to destroy cultural landmarks, or even the majority of commercial ones, just the key components of the island's chipmaking industry that would incentivize an invasion by mainland China. It's an outcome that no one wants, but remains sufficiently feasible so as to be effective in preventing such an invasion in the first place. If the current CCP is bad, one that directly controls the majority of the world's chipmaking industry would be far worse.
im assuming they mean scorched earth economically, not in terms of like, fauna.
The primary benefit of capturing territory is using it to make money. And generate products and goods/services.
I've seen people called Wumao for suggesting the collective suicide of the island was somehow less preferable than Hong Kong style reincorporation.
Folks are so terrified of Chinese rule that they'd rather kill themselves than endure it.
Not the first totalitarian government people have felt like that about...
"A while" as in about 400 years — that's when China took over Taiwan.
After World War II, there was a power struggle between the Republic of China (backed by the USA) and the Chinese Communist Party (backed by Russia).
The ROC/US controlled pretty much all of China, but then the US withdrew support and simultaneously granted concessions to Japan (as part of the peace deal between Japan and the US) and the CCP/Russia took advantage. The resulting civil war "ended" with the ROC having control of Taiwan, and the CCP controlling all of the rest of China.
But that civil war never really ended - it merely cooled down and became non-military conflict.
The CCP doesn't exist 400 years ago. The CCP is not China. That's what they want you to think. It is really just a political faction that has taken the rest of the country hostage. For all I know the CCP members could be lizard people based on their inhumanity.
The ROC (originally KMT since it was also a one party state) has just as much rights to claim Taiwan as the CCP, and probably more, because they've actually ruled it.
Interestingly enough it's the same kind of historical relationship with Russia and Ukraine, where Russia claims rights over Ukraine due to "shared history", when in fact the details of that history supports Ukraine claiming Russia instead.
The U.S. did not grant any "concessions" to Japan, the Japanese surrendered unconditionally, and rightfully so, it is good that the free world eliminated that maniacal genocidal regime.
I have to agree. China's colonization drive in Africa is a long term deal - and that means that Taiwan blocks China's ability to exert control over the Indian Ocean (which will eventually become a necessity to enforce said colonization). China can play the waiting game now in Africa while the US and France wear each other out waging proxy wars neither of them can win in the long run... but eventually it will start exerting more direct control.