this post was submitted on 21 May 2024
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My understanding is that some of the benefits China would get from invading Taiwan is the control of Taiwan's world-leading semiconductor industry. So making it public knowledge that any invading force (i.e. China) would not be able to take over their production capabilities is a small deterrent.
It's a small deterrent for China but a bigger incentive for other countries to defend Taiwan.
That's what some analysts say but I really don't think China cares. They want the land (*it's strategically important for naval operations) and a unified China.
This is true, China doesn't care. I'm actually confused about the narrative around China wanting to take TSMC. Even the most cursory glace at the situation should make it obvious this isn't one of China's goals. This is because these EUV machines don't work on magic. They work on knowledge and spare parts. Even in the unlikely scenario that China somehow invades and these machines aren't destroyed by either China or the retreating Taiwanese, they aren't going to be able to operate them and more importantly get spare parts to keep them running. They'd at best be used to disassemble and review.
All of this ignores the fact that China is already at 5nm using their own equipment anyway. For the extra 2nm of difference between TSMC's 3nm to SMIC's 5nm isn't large enough to rationalize anything close to what they're talking about. It'd be cheaper to just keep subsidizing the Chinese industry rather than invading.
All of this is to say, that China may or may not invade, but TSMC isn't on the list of reasons. If anything, it's on the opposite end. China has a LOT of motivation to bomb TSMC to prevent the west from getting chips as if TSMC is gone, then suddenly Chinese 5nm are pretty much the most advanced chips in the world (besides Samsung). Thus, the real conclusion is we need to invest in Samsung, which surprisingly isn't happening for whatever reason is beyond me.
Keep in mind that the "nm" in the different company's lithography process names are basically just marketing at this point, and don't reflect anything meaningful about the actual size of transistors. As far as I know, we don't really know much about China's latest "5nm" process and how it actually compares to others.
And even if they did get the machines in working order, yay it'll be relevant for 5 to maybe 10 years before tech goes up.
Chinese GPUs need to be tested thoroughly across AAA titles, Linux. Imagine playing Genshin or Wuthering Waves with those GPUs.
They want power and influence, I don't think they care too much (or at all) about their citizens be it divided or united. Unless those citizens add to power or influence, of course
Yup, US gov is fucked up. Oh, wait...
Well, I don't think any government is different in that regard 😅
Yeah that's why they want the land, it's important strategically for naval operations.
China already produces over 50% of the world's semiconductors.