RealTesla

Looks like declining sales is already the reality in China. No big surprise with the huge economic issues hitting China right now, but still a big deal.

Tesla was pretending China would drive their growth story. So this new factoid kills their main growth angle.

But even by that new standard — with growth forecasts on Wall Street sinking rapidly — the grim sales prediction from a key Tesla analyst last week was still shocking. There’ll be zero growth in sales volumes for the electric-vehicle maker this year, Wells Fargo’s Colin Langan said. And in 2025, it’ll be worse yet: Volumes will drop.

Tesla vehicles have slowed down growth, to the point that analysts are thinking that volumes will drop by 2025.

As such: Tesla is no longer a "growth" company, or so goes this new narrative. It seems a bit premature to start claiming this, but on the other hand... the 2nd derivative trend is clear today. So its not out of the question to start making these kinds of predictions.

The price of electric cars is plummeting so fast that they’re now almost as cheap as gas-powered cars.

Consumers still aren't biting, and $50k+ for the average EV (assuming a Model3 or Model Y) is still tens-of-thousands above the comparable Toyota Corolla Hybrid or Chevy Trax SUV.

"Average ICE car" is $48k+, but average ICE car is F150, large 3-row SUVs or 3-row mini-vans. And a scattering of $20k economy-cars (Camry, Accord, Trax, Maverick). And... IMO EVs like Tesla have such cheap interiors that I personally compare them to the economy cars rather than the $40k+ class they try to be in.

Still, its good to see competition dropping these EV prices down.

Looks like BlueSky and Threads are doing their damage.

Mastodon is pretty good too I hear :-)

Archived link: https://archive.is/Y6Oz5

Adam Cook starts a good discussion on a recent Tesla accident resulting in a death.

In it, a woman put her Tesla in reverse, confuding forward with reverse. This is likely due to a variety of user-interface issues on Tesla, including the confusing / non-standard touchscreen controls, the lack of physical controls, and so forth.

Adam Cook makes a strong argument for making controls standardized, like we do on Airplanes, to ensure that people know which buttons do what in their cars.

Tesla is quite bad at this, with multiple changes to their interface over the past 10 years for seemingly no good reason.

I'm not 100% sure if I can get behind Adam Cook's full argument. But he's correct in that Tesla has substantial UI issues to fix here, and this latest fatality proves it.

I dunno if I'd call $45k "for the masses", but its an easier price point than Rivian's current lineup.

The R3, which will be "less expensive" is a bit more exciting. I think the RAV4 / compact SUV market is one of the bigger markets in America right now, so if Rivian can break into it that'd be good for them.

I haven't heard of this list before. ACEEE claims to consider the caustic effects of mining and total environmental impact of EVs, thus giving a way to consider lifetime emissions and lifetime pollution.

We all know that Tesla vehicles have over 1000lbs of batteries in them: batteries that were mined through dirty means, and hundreds of extra pounds that reduce the efficiency of the vehicle. Adding up the total environmental impacts overall are difficult, and I've always been looking for a methodology that took these issues into account.

ACEEE did come up with a 2024 list of the "greenest" cars, as well as a top-10 list of "Greener, non-EV cars". The non-EV list is for anyone who is unable to use electricity (ex: living in an apartment without access to a charger), who still wants the greenest solution for themselves.

Lightweight EVs like the Nissan Leaf and Mini Cooper SE are near the top of the list. Surprisingly, Prius Prime 2024 (a PHEV) tops the list as #1 greenest car according to the ACEEE's methodology.

I'll have to read more about the methodology here, but I'm glad to see a total lifetime envrionmental effects list like this. I'll have to review their methodology before I fully trust it, but the surface-level discussions look great.

So I was led to believe that EVs were doing poorly a few headlines ago, but maybe its specific to Tesla?

The Detroit automaker Monday reported sales of 174,192 cars and trucks for February. The results included an 81% jump in EV sales and roughly 32% uptick in hybrid models. Sales of traditional internal combustion engines also increased, up 7.5% from the same month a year earlier.

+81% EV sales, mostly Mach-E and F150 Lightning. Hybrids are still doing great at +32% growth.

An Archive.is of today's Bloomberg on Tesla.

Anyone who saw TSLA stock price today noticed a -4.5% open. It seems like poor news out of China. Every year, Chinese New Year / Lunar New Year celebrations cause a major drop in sales. But even YoY (Februrary 2024 vs Februrary 2023), Chinese sales are down dramatically.

A reasonable discussion on PHEVs and their benefits from Consumer Reports.

TL;DR: Tesla has substantially higher tire maintenance costs compared to other cars in its class, or even compared to the RAV4 Hybrid.

Tire-related maintenance and replacement costs for Tesla vehicles are so much more than with a conventional vehicle the same size, it negates much of the cost savings the Tesla’s low-maintenance powertrain design offers.

This ends up as a wash, all those (cheap) oil-changes may add up to some costs by 100,000 miles, but the amount of wear-and-tear on a Tesla's tires more than makes up for the cost and then some.

Tesla’s Model Y has a 100,000-mile maintenance cost estimate between $8,250 for base trims and $15,000 for the performance trim. This does not include repairs. By comparison, a Toyota Highlander in the Car Talk fleet had a 100,000-mile maintenance and repair cost of $14,029. A Honda Accord had a 100,000-mile maintenance and repair cost of $7,684. If there is a cost advantage to Tesla with regard to maintenance and repair, we cannot find it.

The tl;dr:

Sales of all-electric cars and light trucks in California had started off strong in 2023, rising 48% in the first half of the year compared with a year earlier. By that time, California EV sales numbered roughly 190,807 — or slightly more than a quarter of all EV sales in the nation, according to the California New Car Dealers Assn.

But it’s what happened in the second half of last year though that’s generating jitters. Sales in the third quarter fell by 2,840 from the previous period — the first quarterly drop for EVs in California since the Tesla Model S was introduced in 2012. And the fourth quarter was even worse: Sales dropped 10.2%, from 100,151 to 89,933.

A member of a Cybertruck owners' forum says they were warned that rain could cause their vehicle to rust when collecting their Tesla.

A video on www.threads.net where Tesla makes a very dangerous left turn on full-self driving.

The largest issue with the Cybertruck is that its stainless steel body doesn’t have a clear coat, so there’s nothing to protect the body from dents, dings, scratches, and corrosive substances from immediately coming into contact with the body. If things like rain, car washes, bugs, and pine tar need to be cleaned off immediately and regularly, road salt, rocks, and debris from off-roading will surely wreak havoc on the truck’s body.

People are beginning to post Cybertruck's rusting exterior onto the internet.

It hasn't been more than a few months for these units and the speckles of Rust are already beginning to form. I'm guessing from road salt + moisture + winter in general. But who knew that steel could possibly rust?

New (asian) year, new topic!

How's the community been doing lately?

META: Chatting topics exist for off-topic posts and milder discussion, to help us create a more community feel. There needs to be a place to discuss meta-issues, such as rule changes, posting habits, and the like. Feel free to use this topic for this purpose!

Looks like Tesla demand is collapsing. Lots of price cuts.

To be fair, cars in general are all declining in price. But Tesla's seem to lead the way, having far steeper sales than other vehicle categories. A few % lower for everyone else (maybe becoming a 1.9% APY finance option instead of a proper price cut or something) is compared to -20% or bigger discounts to Tesla recently.

Dawn Project is apparently setting up another ad for the Super Bowl. This has to do with the obviously unsafe "Autopilot", and the myriad of tests that prove that emergency braking is piss-poor on Tesla systems.

PHEV discussion is on topic here if people weren't aware.

This YouTube video describes the planetary gear set used in Toyota Prius and similar Hybrids. Different hybrids (like Volvo or Honda) have completely different mechanisms, but I think it's safe to call the Prius and RAV4 the king of hybrid/PHEVs right now.

The planetary gear act as a differential going backwards. Instead of a powered shaft powering two wheels going at different speeds (around a turn for example), the Hybrid Powersplit Device allows two motors (EV motor + ICE motor) power a single shaft despite the two motors traveling at different speeds.

Toyota would tune these gears so that the EV motor and ICE engine are operating in their ideal ranges. This, leading to the huge efficiency of the Prius.

http://eahart.com/prius/psd/

This website has a decent simulator to play with as well.

Threads and Bloomberg hit first in the other topic. But this apnews.com link has no paywall, so we can better discuss the details here.