whyrat

joined 1 year ago
[–] whyrat 14 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Usually these costs are including education and childcare. In the US you can easily expect to pay around $1K / Month for full time child care between the ages of 6 months and 5 years (when they'll start public school). Here's a recent summary for major cities in Texas reflecting that amount: https://tootris.com/edu/blog/parents/child-care-in-texas-can-cost-up-to-10000/

That's over $40K just in childcare costs before entering school. Now, many people don't have to pay this because they have family (or a non-working spouse) who assist; but from a cost perspective it's fair to include.

Add on to that food, clothing and such... between ages it's easy to see how some estimates can reach over $200K through age 18.

[–] whyrat 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

The Ola one looks pretty dang nice; if it were available in the US I'd probably buy one just for random rides on nice weather days.

https://newatlas.com/motorcycles/ola-electric-roadster-motorcycles/

[–] whyrat 2 points 4 months ago

PPI at 0.1 brings us solidly back in line with pre-covid inflation numbers; with the 12-month at 2.2.

Core PPI still higher at 0.3 (3.3 for the 12 month period).

Certainly feels like the covid kinks have mostly worked out at this point and prices have stabilized... If there's no shocks it's looking much more likely the Fed lowers interest rates this quarter.

[–] whyrat 34 points 4 months ago (1 children)

This is great momentum; especially if it helps down ballot Colin Allred defeat Ted Cruz for the senate. Some polling has him within 5 points (or even tied in a few polls earlier this year). It's a bit of a stretch; but Texas is notorious for it's low voter turnout. Moving a few % of this non-voting population to feel like their vote matters & get them to show up would be enough to shift these races!

[–] whyrat 3 points 4 months ago

Fair point; I was throwing around off-the-cuff numbers. You're right that 15 or 30 year mortgages are the time frames to calculate around.

The inflation adjustment is valid too. If rates drop refinance options are available at the mortgage holder's convenience (assuming their terms allow it, but most do); but taking advantage of decreasing rent often requires a move; not nearly as easy as a purely paperwork based refinance.

My mindset is still stuck in the 2010s; when inflation was mild & rates were at historic lows for nearly the entire decade.

[–] whyrat 4 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

You don't absolutely need credit, no. But it's sometimes more efficient (financially) to buy things on credit.

Housing is a typical example of this. To save up for the full price of a house will likely take someone years (at least 10, likely more). In that time, you're (probably) paying rent and not accumulating any net worth for doing so. In contrast if you buy a house on credit (mortgage) you may be paying almost the same amount in mortgage & insurance as you would for an equivalent rent; but at the end of the ~10 years you'll finish the loan and have a paid off house. If instead you spent all that money on rent, you'd have only the amount saved in addition to the rent paid.

There's many online rent or mortgage calculators to show when it's a financial benefit to hold a property on mortgage as opposed to rent & save any difference... it is not always the case that owning your housing is more financially efficient; but for many people it is.

Similar with a car; if you need a car for your income (e.g. your commute isn't feasible nor reliable via other transportation means); you can't save up for a car with income you require a car to earn. Of course, this is why many advocate for better transit options and to move away from car-centric cities and lifestyles. But not everyone is able to achieve a car-free life (especially in much of the US).

The other big reason to use credit: you often get real benefits for doing so! Paying in cash occasionally offers a discount; but that's only the case at a minority of places. In most cases you can pay the same price with either credit or cash, but also receive some benefit from the credit company (e.g. miles, points, cash-back, etc... your card options will vary). Why is this the case? The current state (in the US) is that credit card companies make money on transaction fees to merchants. In order for one card company to encourage you to use their card over a competitor's they offer some form of incentive. The merchant's transaction fee is why you'll sometimes see merchants offer a cash discount; and if that's the case you're often better off paying cash. But when price is the same for credit or cash, you're leaving money on the table by choosing cash (or rather, you're giving some percentage of your purchase to the merchant instead of splitting it with the credit card vendor).

[–] whyrat 16 points 4 months ago (1 children)

VIX under 20 isn't a warning... The stock market valuation indicator I agree with: stocks are a bit over valued right now. But over valued just means we need a correction... not whether it will be a mild or severe one.

What's more troubling is the market reacting already to nonsense trump comments. From the caption in the linked article:

The latest market sell-off was partly triggered by former President Donald Trump's comments on Taiwan and tariffs.

Does no one else remember the dumpster fire that was the markets jumping at every comment and policy flip-flop during his four year term? The same volatility indicator (VIX) regularly jumped over 20 after some dumb trade policy comment...

[–] whyrat 5 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I'm curious on the figure for Viz media, as it seems to me like that low a percentage is US only, not worldwide ... But that's a gut reaction as I've not ever bothered to look up their revenue numbers.

[–] whyrat 3 points 4 months ago

Prices are flat, or falling? https://www.newsweek.com/texas-housing-market-falters-prices-fall-sales-drop-1927108

Two different articles, two different numbers:

the statewide median home price showed nearly flat growth, rising 0.6% year over year to $345,000.

vs

The median sale price of a home in Texas was $354,800 in June, according to the real estate brokerage, down 0.94 percent year-over-year.

[–] whyrat 42 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

That's the kind of smart CEO behavior that justifies his almost $45B+ compensation package. /s

[–] whyrat 6 points 5 months ago

The fact that everything was a dream was kind of the point for Alice in Wonderland... no? It wasn't a twist at the end, it was clear she was descending into a dream as she followed the white rabbit. It was all about how dreams don't have to make sense.

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