Sorry this just isn't so. You can't just observe a range of polls which predict a wide range of outcomes and probabilities after the fact and pick whichever one turned out to be best after the fact and say polling was accurate unless that poll you picked consistently achieves that level of accuracy.
This would be like rolling a box full of 100 sided dice before a game and then picking the 2 closest to the football games final score and then declaring that those dice are accurate to within so many points.
Polling is not nor has it been accurate to half a point. The pollsters themselves claim a larger margin of error.
Well once upon a time xp through 7 at least clicking start menu and starting to type the name of an app worked really well rather than resulting in some weird as web search opened in edge searching for no reason for what you had typed. I'm 100% sure there is some 3rd party launcher that still works as well as the start menu did before they ruined it. If I still used it I would probably install that.
The App menu in Cinnamon (Linux Mint) Also has the same binding and like older windows actually works well too.