Trump lost the popular vote in 2016.
And he lost to Biden in 2020, because people saw that he sucked.
2024 is not comparable to 2016. It's comparable to 2020, in the sense that most Americans do not want Trump. They will not stay at home.
Switching candidates now is very risky.
And this is coming from someone who would have preferred Bernie Sanders to face Trump in 2016 and in 2020.
It was a bad night.
Also, this professor predicted Trump's 2016 victory when everyone thought Clinton was in the lead. He is now predicting Biden's victory:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/allan-lichtman-election-predictor-biden-debate-performance_n_66825021e4b0b85bde42df7b
A quote from the article: