Yeah, also, Conservatives are more 'fall in line' voters, so there's less vote splitting on the Right than on the Left. Libertarians do appeal to the people opposed to both eyes in the boardroom and eyes in the bedroom on both the Left and the Right, but for the most part, the GQP follows the 'Vote for the Conservative in the Primary and the Republican in the General' more than we follow its inverse (replace Conservative with Liberal and Republican with Democrat). And for Republicans afraid of a Trump presidency, come join us and vote for Harris. Then maybe go work on de-Trumping your party after they lose with you helping us. ;)
This is what I keep saying. It's like my scenario with the Class President. A Nerd and a Jock are running. 51 kids are nerds and don't want the Jock. 49 kids are jocks and don't want the Nerd. Pretty clear that the Nerd wins, because more people don't want the Jock than the Nerd, right? Wrong. If the Jock can peel just THREE votes off from the nerd coalition, the Jocks win it and D&D night is cancelled.
Now re-read that and replace nerds with Liberals, jocks with Conservatives, and 'D&D night is cancelled' with 'Project 2025 is shoved down our throats.' Then...vote with your fucking head and not your fucking heart!
I get where you're coming from here, but ... let's be clear.
Come January, one of two people will be taking the Oath of Office.
- Kamala Harris.
- Donald Trump.
The article explains why it's best for you to vote for the person you dislike the least (if you can't say 'like the most') out of those two.
None of the other candidates for President have any realistic shot at POTUS.
In fact, many of them are mathematically eliminated from a shot at POTUS by virtue of them not being able to secure 270 EVs because they are not on the ballot in enough states. Most of them can't even get 100EV, let alone 270.
Apart from RFK Jr, Chase Oliver, and Jill Stein, none of them appear as a pickable option in enough states to have a shot at winning 270 EVs and will require Write-In Campaigns.
RFK Jr., Chase Oliver, and Jill Stein COMBINED represent less than 10% (largest vote share I have seen in the past month is Outward Intelligence, which had Kennedy at 3%, West at 1%, Oliver at 1%, and Stein at 1%, taken between 22 and 26 Sept of 1735 Likely Voters, while most other polls show Third Parties between 2% and 5%). Harris is between 45% and 50% in many of these polls, which means...well, Harris has MUCH more of a shot of winning than any of the Third Party candidates, let alone any one of them.
The fix for this is to get your Greens and Socialists and Liberals and Progressives running for local offices, and pushing and pushing hard for RCV. I can't vote for your favourite candidate now because I don't want Republicans in office, but if RCV passes this November, I'll be far more open to it. In fact, I'll take a risk on a Green or Progressive or Libertarian alternative to my Senator or Representative because I can vote that person 1, and make sure the Dem is ranked over the GQPer, so my vote becomes a Dem long before a Republican can win. Then work on getting the EC torn down. And I think you should to. I won't tell you you MUST. But I won't shy away from saying that if you want a progressive future, letting Harris lose now is a stupid way to try (and fail) to achieve that.
Yeah. It has been that way since the founding of the country. The winner not only must have the most votes, they must get half of the available EVs, rounding up. This was learned early on in the history of the US, when four Democratic-Republicans ran for President, and nobody got the required number of votes. This happened in 1824, barely half a century after the US was founded. It resulted in Andrew Jackson (Trump's role model, BTW), getting 99 EVs, John Q. Adams winning 84 EVs, William H. Crawford (who had a stroke) winning 41 EVs, and Henry Clay winning 37 EVs. Per the 12th Amendment of the US constitution, nobody had a straight majority here, so the top three vote getters (disqualifying Henry Clay) advanced to the House of Representatives. Clay's supporters in Congress threw their weight behind John Q. Adams, giving him a straight majority over the top candidate, Andrew Jackson, and Adams gave Clay a spot in his cabinet. Capping this shitstorm off was Andrew "Sore Loser" Jackson throwing a fit, calling it a 'corrupt bargain', in a very Trumpian temper tantrum.
IMO, what happened in 1828 (and again in 1837 with the VP) is an important history lesson for voters thinking of voting Third Party. Unless you can somehow convince 50% + 1 people to pick your Third Party candidate in 270 EV worth of states, your best bet is to get that candidate to run for a local election and become a vocal proponent for fixing the US electoral system. Because you'd hate to have 269 EV go for Harris, 81 go to a mix of Left-Wing Third Party candidates, and 188 go to Trump, then have the election thrown to the House, where the Trumpian states give Trump the win despite the Left-wing candidates winning in a landslide were those EVs have gone to a single person. And even that's an unrealistic scenario. Only two people who have not had an R or D behind their name have gotten EVs in my lifetime, and both of them were from faithless electors, NOT from winning an EV. You're not going to win the Presidency with 1% of the vote. But you WILL throw your state over to the bad guy if your 1% share makes the difference between Harris winning and Trump winning.
There are a lot of reasons why you shoulnd't vote for third party for US Presidential Elections. The EC is just one of them.
Oh, so you don't want to actually have the discussion you were prompting. OK! Good to know.
Dear reader, to answer this person's question, I point this out to point out why you shouldn't not vote for Harris just because she didn't give you exactly what you want. One of two people will be President next year. One's named Kamala Harris. The other is named Donald Trump. NOTHING will change this fact.
We can talk about how we can push Harris to be a better Democrat. In fact, we should. That's how you get things done in a large nation like tthe USA, filled with people whose livelihoods will be impacted by your proposed changes! That's what I was pointing out. This user didn't want to have that conversation, but feel free and post here if you want to, and maybe, think about how wise it is to keep Harris out of the White House when the only other option is a tin-pot Twitler with delusions of grandeur.
Couple of ideas here:
- Registered Voters != Likely Voters. That's like Polling 101 right there and part of why this isn't black and white.
- She probably thinks she'll lose more of her coalition by banning fracking than she'll retain.
- Cold, hard, cash is always a possible answer.
The :3 was me trying to convey cat-like mirth and humour. ;3 But thanks for letting me know how you managed to get this user to shut up.
So...if you have criticisms of how Medicare is run, then how, pray tell, do you expect the government to run a universal healthcare program? Maybe we should be pressuring people to fix Medicare. Because if we can't fix Medicare, we can't run a Universal Healthcare program. Besides. Imagine the backlash of being told you have to give up your platinum tier health insurance plan from those who like their platinum tier health insurance plans? Oh wait. You don't have to.. That already happened and creamed Obama in 2010 and 2014.
As an aside, my favourite idea for fixing Medicare is to replace all government employee health insurance programs with Medicare coverage, and a mandate that the only healthcare you can receive is healthcare from Medicare, and if it's available to you as a Government employee, it must be available to anyone else who uses Medicare. I figure that'll change some tunes REAL fucking quick! Same with mandating Government employees, especially legislators and judges, use Social Security for their retirement plans. In my field, we call this 'eating your own dogfood.'
I suspect Harris looked at this poll or something like it. Americans don't know what they want, but they do know what they don't want, and that's too much change at one time. Which is a shame because Obama ran on Hope and Change. But by the time he took office, the gap between people who said that they thought the Government should take responsibility for quality healthcare and those who say that it's none of the Government's business shrank from like +40 to almost 0, and only in a matter of 2 years. Then he passed the ACA, and that number went negative. Between Progressives leaving him high and dry and moderates saying he went to far, Obama just got creamed on this. And I'm sure Harris wants to serve more than one term, especially if the Trumpster Fire is still kicking around in 2028!
Clue Bus time: on 20 January 2025, one of two people will take the Oath of Office to be the 47th President of the United States.
-
Kamala Harris will represent a moderate, maybe even Centre-Right option, who will take baby steps along the path, pissing off liberals but reassuring moderates and even a few right-wing people that she's a safe, comfortable answer for POTUS.
-
Donald Trump will represent a hard-right, likely even Fascist option, who will make leaps and bounds AWAY from the liberal goal, pissing off Liberals, worrying Moderates, and enabling some of the most authoritarian, xenophobic jerks in the country.
This list is exhaustive. Why?
- Chase Oliver will not be President. While the Libertarian Party has the largest share of the vote, usually, this was the margin for the last 5 Presidential Elections: 1.18%, 3.28%, 1.0%, 0.4%, 0.32%.
- Jill Stein will not be President. The Green Party only managed to put up 0.10%, 0.12%, 0.36%, 1.07%, and 0.26%, with starred entries representing Stein being the candidate.
- Claudia De la Cruz will not be President. Nor will Rachele Fruit, Joseph Kishore, or Bill Stodden. Various Socialist Parties have turned in 0.02% (2), 0 (0), 0 (0), 0.05% (1), and 0 (0). What's worse is that De la Cruz would have to win EVERY state she was certified for, plus over half of the states she is a registered write-in candidate for to win the necessary 270 EVs you must have to win the Presidency.
- Cornel West will not be President. He would have to virtually win every state he got ballot access to to make the 270 EV cutoff.
- Peter Sonski will not be President. He would have to win all the states he got his name on the ballot, and successfully run a write-in campaign across 20 states, in order to have a chance at 270 EVs.
- Shiva Ayyadurai will not be President. The max number of EVs he could get is 288, requiring him to win write-in campaigns over 20 states.
- Randall Terry cannot be President. Literally, even if he won every state he's running in, he'd cut off at 200 EV and lose the election.
- Rachele Fruit cannot win. She caps out at 111 EV.
- Kishore can't win. He caps out at 100 EV.
- Duncan can't win.; He caps out at 87 EV.
- Skousen can't win. His cieling is 97 EV.
- Bowman can't win. He tops out at 111EV.
- Huber can't win. His max is 80EV.
- Preston can't win (thank God!). He can't get more than 78EV.
- Garrity can't win. He peaks at 91 EV.
- Stodden can't win. 83 is his top.
- Wood can't win, which is great for people who like beer. His max is 76 EV.
- Everylove can't win, as even being the Morning Star doesn't give him more than 76 EV.
- Ebke can't win, as at most he could get if every went his way is 86 EV.
- Well's can't win, since his ticket peaks at 70 EV.
- And alas, Vermin Supreme can't win. He can only get 73 EVs.
And most importantly of all, in the past 5 elections, do you know the total number of Electoral Votes any person without an R or D has won? Wait for it. Wait for it!
TWO. And they were both faithless electors.
Let's extend that back. How many EVs have been won by someone not in the Republican or Democratic party during my lifetime (starting in '76)?
TWO (Plus one abstension and two non-main ticket Dems and one non-main ticket Rep). Despite Ross Perot taking 18.91%, the largest Third Party take in my life, he wasn't able to manage a single EV. Over almost 50 years, only five electoral votes didn't go to the winner and the runner up, and each third place or worse finisher only got a single one at a time.
This should tell the 'Deny Harris the Presidency' people something. Denying Harris the Presidency means one thing and one thing only. The person who takes that Oath of Office in January will not be anyone else except Donald J. Trump.
I suspect this is what theCannonball means when they say that Harris is better than the alternative. Because if she doesn't win, Trump will. There is no division over on the Right. They're all in for Trump. While we have a few Right-Wing voices speaking from our coalition, they are a drop in the bucket compared to the MAGAts that are infesting the corpse of their zombie party now. And Trump has fucking PLANS for what he's going to do to the country, and it won't be with lube, a reach around, a kiss, or dinner.
These few right-wingers also get a few things on their mind. They've known this truth all along and counted on our stupidity before, expecially in 2000, 2010, and 2014. They have a saying over there. "Vote for the Conservative in the Primary and the Republican in the general." They have this saying because they know the truth in the adage that politics is not like marriage, but like public transit. You don't wait for the perfect option. You take the bus that gets you closest to your destination. They know that if they want to get something done, they need somebody that they can browbeat and cajole into going their direction. Democratic politicians are seen as out of reach, but even the most RINO of Republicans can be threatened with primaries and withholding funding. And now that a naked Fascist without a shred of common decency is taking over their party, the few good Republicans are realising that a vote for the Third Party isn't good enough, and they're trying to say this exact same thing to their voters so the few million or so that voted Jo Gorgensen in 2020 come over here to replace the damn fools that go over and vote Third Party from our coalition.
I hear the people saying 'a pox on both their houses', for sure. I'm sick of the Dems using Rep bad behaviour to cover for their own. That's why I'm voting for RCV in this election for Colorado. If it passes and is implemented, I'll be a bit more discerning in who I vote for for State offices and Reps and Senators. But as long as we have FPTP and the Electoral College, I'm not voting anything but Blue unless and until I can tolerate a Republican being in office.
TL;DR; The choice is between Harris and Trump. If you don't want Trump in office, vote Harris. What I've been saying for years. Otherwise, be ready for a Trump presidency to be shoved sideways up the back entrance.-
This. 100% this. If you want progress, you have to stop and look at who will be in office in January. Donald Trump...or Kamala Harris. No other names will take that Oath of Office, and this was set back all the way in July. If you wanted Progressive McProgressivestein in office, that person needed to be ran in the Primaries for the Democratic Party in July, which meant that candidate needed to be introduced to people long before then, as early as January 2020. And if your idea candidate didn't win the Primaries, that means you couldn't convince enough Democrats to vote for your candidate, and if you can't convince Democrats to vote your guy or gal, how can you convince enough AMERICANS?
Definitely. I tried to keep the scenario simple to make it easy to understand, but there is truth in the statement that the jocks have some fingers on the scale of Democracy. I suspect there's more nerds than jocks. We just have to make sure they all turn out to vote because the cheerleader that is the jock's politician is pulling out ALL the dirty tricks.