Of course, but I don't think that him as the VP candidate changes the odds of that much relative to the other contenders who don't come with that risk.
VP candidates don't usually matter much in an election unless they're freaks with a couch fetish or something weird like that.
He's Peter Thiel's Peter minion. Thiel has been pushing hard for him and trump really wants access to the enormous pile of cash that Thiel has. Vance has demonstrated that he has no principals beyond sucking up to his sugar daddies for their approval, so he's a perfect fit.