The revolt itself is very interesting. Odviously they knew Russia was already under heat from the invasion and that would likely help thier cause. But why stop? Were they waiting for other to join who didn't? Did they think they were going to face more resistance earlier and panicked because they got close to Moscow and suspected a trap? Was there some other motivation and the rebellion was a distraction? Whatever the reason it definitely shows that Putin is losing control and that people who used to be his allies can turn against him.
this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2023
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I posted this comment in another thread (hope it's OK to link). TL;DR Putin has a track record of using bizarre public "emergencies"* to progress what he wants, maybe this is another one.
*e.g. Moscow theatre gassing, Beslan school massacre
I don't think so - it made him look incredibly weak. Prigozhin getting as far as he did is just awful for him. That he had to negotiate at all. His speech yesterday was just a nothing burger - he didn't even name Prigozhin, just alluded to him.
Honestly he is the person that lost the most here - Prigozhin is still alive, Wagner seemingly still kicking too, no charges and it got negotiated by Lukaschenko of all people.
His strongman image is over and things will def come crumbling for him now.
I am open to entertain the idea but I fail to see what would his play be - Prigozhins reasons are very clear as he stated them before and after the coup
He was tried of putting his best men and friends in body bags, being stuck in Bakhmut and the people above him in the pecking order, will he succeed remains to be seen but his reasons are understood
my best speculation is that Prigozhin comes off as a stupid brute who was reigned in by wavy politicians after brute force was more effective than anyone expected. but it's really just rando speculation.
*savy politicians
where's the edit button? 😖
Per this interpretation, Prigo was hoping that more of the army would start rebelling along with him, and they had until his convoy got to Moscow to start doing it. Seems that he miscalculated though.
The more I think about it (and I've thought a lot past few days) the more this seems to be the case. He thought there is going to be more support and backed out when it didn't materialise
There are unconfirmed reports that the FSB had the locations of the families of many of the top guys in Wagner.