this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2023
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Will Chris win?

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Cool, we get to watch an national/act government tonight, a no vote in Australia overnight and a genocide tomorrow

[–] HappycamperNZ 11 points 1 year ago (7 children)

Playing apocalypse bingo over there?

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

Don't forget the Polish elections tomorrow! It has all the drama of a modern election!

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Wait for the special votes. Back in 1999 - The Greens won 7 extra seats from special votes alone.

  • A special voter
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[–] HappycamperNZ 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I hope NZ wins, but Chris has it in the bag. Unlike that prick Chris.

Edit: not calling Hipkins a prick, but with the result it looks it.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Even in his electorate, he didn't win with anywhere near the majority he has had previously. His stretch as PM has really hurt his popularity.

[–] HappycamperNZ 6 points 1 year ago (8 children)

I think labour is reaping the consequences of protecting the country during covid. They did an amazing job and now its over the country forgot how much their choices did.

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

Funnily enough there is probably a chance Chris loses

[–] Mojojojo1993 6 points 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (5 children)

It's looking like Blue Chris will win, a disappointing result for Red Chris.

Serious though, this is a huge shift from last election, almost a 25% drop. And it looks like Winnie will be out in the cold, thankfully.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

It's the least inspiring election I've ever seen. Literally had no idea who was the least worst option stepping into the booth

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago

That's the heart of it right there. There was simply no right choice.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

If you look at the cumulative votes graph, you'll see there are a lot less voters this election. It makes me wonder what the shift would look like if everyone voted (or, what are the key demographics for people who don't vote).

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Its seems like a lot of area seats were lost because left wing votes were split between labour and greens which allowed national to snag it.

[–] RegalPotoo 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yeah, FPP for the electorate vote is kinda bullshit. Ranked preference would be way fairer

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

I was about to try and point out that a party vote for greens is actually a party vote for a greens+labour coalition.

Then realised that you're referring to electorate votes.

Derp.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

Wow it sucks that TOP didn't do better; but what sucks even more is that NZ Loyal got 1.15%; the crazys were out in force this year.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

So going on how things changed as voters were counted, it would appear that the early voting broke more for Nat / Act, and then the day of voting broke for Lab / G. NZF & TPM stayed relatively consistent throughout the night. This makes sense, blue-collar working people are somewhat more likely to vote Labour than National, and are less likely to have time to get to one of the fewer advance voting posts, than the typically white-collar / retired voters who are somewhat more likely to vote for the right.

The vote totals have now tightened up considerably on whether National can form a government with just Act; such that I am interested to know how many overseas / special votes there might be, and if any of them have been counted yet. If there's enough of them, and they tipped more Labour/Green than National then it might be enough to pull another vote from the right to the left, and given Parliament has an overhang this term Luxon would need to pick up the phone to someone to get an outright majority, at least on confidence & supply.

Another big talking point for me is that one in every twenty voters this election has no representation in Parliament at all due to the threshold requirements for minor parties.

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