this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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DISCUSSION | Toronto Mayoral By-election Polls and Final Results (kbin.social)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Olivia Chow Elected

Update:

The polling stations are now closed. We should have final results in a short time. I'll try to keep this thread up to date with the preliminary results over this evening.

There are quite a number of candidates (102, I believe!) as such, I will not be listing all of them here. I'll have links to the official results when they start coming in if you are curious about some of the lesser-known candidates.

RESULTS (Last updated at 11:59PM ET)

Candidate Percent
Chow 37.2%
Bailão 32.5%
Saunders 8.6%
Furey 5.0%
Matlow 4.9%
Hunter 2.9%
Brown 2.6%

You can find the official results here: https://electionresults.toronto.ca/

Here are some of the most recent polls for the top candidates. We'll see how close to the mark they were tonight.

POLLS

Polling Firm Date Chow Bailão Saunders Matlow Furey Hunter Bradford
Mainstreet June 25 36 30 9 8 8 5 1
Liaison June 25 32 22 15 8 10 5 2
Forum June 23 29 20 15 8 11 5 3
Viewpoints June 19 35 12 16 10 10 6 8
Ipsos June 13 38 12 14 8 7 6 6

METHODOLOGY

Polling Firm Sample Size MOE Method
Mainstreet 1030 3.1% IVR
Liason 1008 3.1% IVR
Forum 1037 3.0% IVR
Viewpoints 1007 N/A Online
Ipsos 1001 N/A Online
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[–] vsp 1 points 1 year ago

Tory miscalculated by leaving his endorsement too late. If folks are grumbling about the result, that's probably the clearest thing that could've moved the dial towards another candidate.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

While I don't 'have a horse in the race' as I don't live in Toronto, admittedly I would like to see Chow win. That said, the fact that the vote is so spread makes it difficult for any candidate to lead with confidence.

Broadly speaking, we can say this at the federal and provincial levels as well when parties get a majority with less than 40% of the vote, but this problem seems even more profound at the municipal level. Without whipped votes or broad party consensus, what kind of support could any of the candidates command?

To me, this really calls for some kind of voting reform—probably runoff voting for mayoral elections or some form of ranked preference.