this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2023
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The Gripen and foreign arms sales (self.sweden)
submitted 2 years ago by Candelestine to c/sweden
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Hello Swedish friends.

I've been told before that Sweden cannot supply the Gripen fighters to Ukraine due to the country being at war.

While I understand the purposes and reasonings behind such a law, I was wondering if there is much of any talk within Sweden of changing this. Is it something the average Swedish citizen would have an opinion on? Is it debated?

I recently read that Ukrainians will be undergoing fighter training in Sweden. Does that mean the policy is potentially changing, and they will be receiving these much better-suited jets than the ones we Americans can sell them?

Thank you.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

AFAIU. Swedish regulations as a general principle state that arms cannot be sold to states that are either, actively engaged in a military conflict, have a non-democratic rule, or violates human rights.

The catch is that there are some exceptions in the law which are often used as a loop hole. F.x Sweden sell arms to Saudi Arabia, USA, Pakistan, and Thailand. All of whom violates one or more of those rules to some extent.

So in reality that law does not stop Sweden from supplying Ukraine with arms, and indeed Sweden has already repeatedly supplied Ukraine with weapons after February 2022.

[–] Candelestine 1 points 2 years ago

I see. That makes sense. The Gripen then would have simply stood out, being an expensive modern fighter. But now that other western fighters are being provided, Sweden can provide them without standing out and stirring up too much trouble.

I admit I sincerely hope they do receive them, I would love to see the Gripen in action, serving in the role it seems to have been designed for.

[–] Zpiritual 4 points 2 years ago

We'll see, this government has generally been pretty low-key about their involvement in supporting Ukraine so far. There's not really a public debate about the arms supply as a result and as far as the "no exports to countries at war" clause that is pretty much obsolete at this point.

As you said they are training Ua gripen pilots so I guess they are at least considering it, but then the problem becomes that there isn't a huge number of Gripen in existence unlike the US planes.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Update. There's an official statement from the Swedish government, on the 16 June.

The armed forces are tasked with orientation training for Ukrainian pilots and associated ground crew personnel on the JAS 39. The background is that the Ukrainian armed forces have expressed requests to be able to operationally evaluate the JAS 39 as one of the most urgent measures is to strengthen the Ukrainian air defence with a modern combat aircraft system. https://regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2023/06/tolfte-stodpaketet-till-ukraina/

In another statement the defence minister stated that the air force "has no gripens to spare, as all are needed for the defence of Sweden", and that the offer was primarily intended to prepare for a future sale of Gripen to Ukraine. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage?inlagg=bd201131a47d882621ba5dad2679a292

So, Ukraine will be able to train on and evaluate the Gripen, but there is currently no official plan to supply them as part of a military support package. Not to rule it out entirely, just not very likely at this time.

[–] Candelestine 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Thank you very much.

I see. So it very much is a quantity problem. Though I do hope Gripen production will increase significantly in the near future, with NATO at large beginning to procure more of them for their unique capabilities. None of our American stuff is that efficient and suited to rugged, dispersed usage. Nobody's aircraft are that suited to dispersed usage, afaik.

This would at least serve to drive the cost/unit down, making it that much easier for states like Ukraine to purchase them down the road. This will likely take years though. Ah well. F-16s will have to work. We do have extremely large quantities of them available, today.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I see. So it very much is a quantity problem.

Well quantity is one aspect, among others.

Open data indicate that Sweden alone have around 100 operational JAS Gripen. One of our eastern neighbours certainly keeps those birds busy with uninvited visits on say a biweekly basis. Still it would surprise me if Sweden could not lend a handful or so of those birds to Ukraine if Sweden commits to that.

Despite the war in Ukraine and the insane actions of Russia not only now but historically, and despite what the "war hawks" in the Swedish political landscape argue, and what officials of the Swedish armed forces imply at times, I see no credible imminent threat of an invasion of Sweden at this time. There are many other forms of threats, but an full on invasion from Russia, where we need to respond in force is very unlikely.

Though I do hope Gripen production will increase significantly in the near future.

I can't see Saab AB, the manufacturer, increase production without new buyers committing fully to purchases first. You just don't build 50 M EUR airplanes on the off chance that a customer might show up later. :) When the buyers materialize, I'm sure Saab will be very eager to ramp up production too.

PS. Obvious caveat here: I'm just a dog on the internet. :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_dog.jpg

[–] Candelestine 1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Yes, I cannot imagine a scenario where Russian troops arrive at the Swedish mainland. They'd have to go through Finland first, and unfortunately for them, they're very bad at that.

I suppose there aren't really that many potential buyers. Most countries with an interest in modern jets don't have the huge tracts of lightly-developed land where it shines. I don't think Canada faces invasion any time soon. Some small South American markets, perhaps.