I've heard the Russian economy is overheating and is going to have major problems by mid 2025 (interest rates already 20+% and home mortgage rate have hit a peak at 40%). I figured that would mean that the Russian war machine would start having massive problems by the end of 2025.

But the way Russia is pushing so hard, after a Trump victory and expected US support withdrawal and pressure to negotiate, makes me think they are trying to begin negotiation on Day 1 of a Trump presidency. Which I would infer means they are in a worse position than I expected and could have massive war machine problems by mid 2025.

If Ukraine was then able to, and did continue, fighting until the end of 2025, they may start making major gains in the war against the broken Russian war machine. Putin may call a second mobilization wave to slow the Ukrainians but that may be counterproductive by causing general unrest and protestation against the war.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 1 month ago

The interest rates have massive impacts. 20% more business bancrupcies, 57% drop in new mortages for new construction and well the government has issues getting loans right now. The Russian government bond index is hitting all time lows.

In other words Russia is facing a massive housing crisis, while its economy collapses, they have high inflation, the government is running out of money and they are fighting a war.

[–] Buffalox 8 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

The Russian economy is absolutely overheating, the Russian central bank interest rate is 21%, so nobody borrow below that.
There are news about increasing rates of bankruptcies of Russian companies, in part caused by these high interest rates and inflation.
The inflation staying high, makes it likely that another increase by the central bank will happen before the end of the year.

There are also news about Russia laying off a massive 10% of government workers.Probably due to worker shortages and state budget deficits.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/11/russia-preparing-mass-government-layoff-a86976

So Russia is already having major economic problems, and they will get worse in 2025.