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- The war in Ukraine has altered the balance of interests between China and Russia. They have drawn closer together and further away from the West without reconciling their different world views, says a joint report by the Mercator Institute for China Studies, Chatham House, and the German Marshall Fund
- The new China-Russia alignment is characterized by a strong, flexible political bond but lacks a shared ideology or legal framework. It reflects mutual instrumentalization and is highly contingent on external factors.
- This alignment has evolved from a mere challenge into a complex security threat to Europe and its transatlantic partners.
- Although the United States and Europe see threats from Russia and China as separate and carrying different degrees of urgency, it is imperative to understand the nature and the extent of the threat they pose together.
- Russia’s war on Ukraine is a direct threat to European security. Beijing’s assistance to Russia turns China into a security threat to be contained rather than only a “partner, competitor and systemic rival”.
- China is providing Russia with an economic lifeline, helping Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions and expand its military-industrial complex with unrestricted exports of critical dual-use goods.
- China is supporting Russia also with hybrid operations and increased military cooperation, reducing Russia’s diplomatic isolation and promoting Russia’s narrative in the Global South. Attempts to drive a wedge between the two “limitless partners” are likely to be counterproductive. Instead, the key is to change Beijing’s calculus for supporting Moscow.
The policy recommendations for transatlantic partners provided here revolve around three pillars:
- Revising Europe’s view of China to acknowledge the security threat it represents.
- Recognising China’s potential role to play in ending the war in Ukraine, yet without weakening European security.
- Clarifying red lines and imposing costs on China for its support for Russia’s war effort.