Yeah, I bet it doesn't happen in 2026 either. SpaceX isn't going to deliver on this, so we'll wait for the backup to be requested and approved.
this post was submitted on 10 Jan 2024
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Yeah, HLS/starship is up for 2 demonstration landings before Artemis 3, and seeing how it needs 12 (8? 17?) launches worth of fuel to do it, that means at least 36 launches before Artemis 3.
That's a very tall order for a rocket with zero orbits or landings.
a rocket with zero orbits or landings
SN15 did land successfully, which is the only stage strictly required to land for HLS requirements. They could (and likely will) launch the booster in expendable mode until they perfect soft-water landings and build a second launch tower for booster catch attempts.
They'll want to work out booster reuse ASAP, but there's nothing preventing them from launching methalox tankers concurrently.
That being said, 2026 still feels a wee bit ambitious.
I'm hoping we see a ramp up in Starship launches this year. Maybe ~5 in 2024, a dozen or two in 2025?