this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2023
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I may be speaking in defense of something I don't know, but I don't see a direct problem with other apps (e.g., Threads, Twitter if they change up what they're doing) to start talking with the fediverse.
The bigger problem is when they start throwing their weight around. The W3C (and groups like Mozilla) have had many strong battles with Google trying weird stuff because they're the biggest guys in the room (e.g., FLoC).
As long as we can rally behind the loyalist FLOSS geeks, we'll always be alright.
Yeah, it's actually a welcome change that they're federating. However, the way they killed off the last federation we had with XMPP was through the EEE model -- they first acted friendly, joined our federation, then they ensured their client would be the best featured, capturing a majority of the people in their user base, and after that they defederated and the community collapsed in their favor. People on non-proprietary solutions had to switch to the proprietary one.
To avoid this, we need to defederate while we're still ahead. I'd personally draw the line at 25%, but the point is just having it significantly less than 50%. If they defederate before they reach a majority, the community will collapse in our favor, and people with proprietary accounts will be the ones forced to come over here. Worst case, we'll just exist beside each other as competitors, and in the best case we'll snuff them out.
We need to be willing to do this to them, because they absolutely will do this to us. Threads is developed by the same Meta who helped kill XMPP a decade ago. (And "helped" only because the main culprit was Google -- regardless, they're not our friends.)
Mastodon has 13 million users. In the first few hours, Threads already had 10 million users. That battle was lost before it even started.
Threads is now at 30 million users.