this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2024
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Unfortunately the American electoral system is not ranked choice, so "bar of acceptability" isn't a functionally meaningful concept. In American elections, the situation is as I've described above. Refusing to choose one of the two primary options functionally means you find both primary options equally acceptable.
duverger's "law" has no predictive value. it's a tautology as empty as "supply and demand".
Tautologies are statements that are necessarily true by virtue of their construction. In order to show that something is tautological, you must reduce it to an open statement and be able to show that it's true independent of the variables. Tautologies include "Not Q or Q" and the equivalent "If Q then Q". Furthermore, stating that something is a tautology implies that you believe it's true. The last time I encountered someone claiming that something didn't have predictive value "because it's a tautology" was a creationist saying the same of evolution, and I realized they had essentially granted their opponent's conclusion.
a tautology is also an appropriate term for any post hoc explanation of material facts that gives no insight into how the future will happen.
duverger's "law" is storytelling, it's not science.