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Twitter was locked in a chaotic doom loop. Now it’s on the verge of collapse | Siva Vaidhyanathan
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2023
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Exactly.
This is Elon hate-porn. Some people LOVE to hate on Elon and make it out like every misstep he does is a DISASTER AND THE MELTDOWN WILL HAPPEN ANY MINUTE NOW!!!!. No it's not. Twitter is alive and well. Some heavy users are pissed I'm sure. But the whole 'running it into the ground' thing just isn't happening.
If you disagree, my answer is simple- try using it. It works. Articles like this paint an awful picture of a service circling the drain that's gonna go bankrupt any minute now. It's clickbait, an article trashing him pandering to a bunch of people who hate him and want to see him fail.
To be clear- I disagree with a lot of what Elon's doing at Twitter. I understand he wants to monetize AI scraping, but I also think that if he wants Twitter to be the 'public square' it has to stay, you know, public. As in no registration required, Google can index.
But I have no need to hate on the guy. If he runs Twitter into the ground or pisses users off too much, Mastodon and other fediverse platforms win. If he succeeds, then good for him. No skin off my back either way.
It's alive and if it dies, its death won't be for technical reasons. It will be enough advertisers abandoning it for his creditors to force him to get something from it and sell it. But so far it is hanging in there.
This AI scraping excuse sites like Twitter and Reddit are using is so disingenuous. This scraping isn't new and hasn't increased to the level where it is costing them anything. It's just it now has hype and a price tag around it so they want their cut.
I don't see Elon selling Twitter. He's too far in. He paid $44bn for it, by most estimates it's probably worth half that today (both due to lower traffic and Elon seriously overpaying from the start). So if he sells, best case scenario he takes a 50% haircut. Crazy or not he has a plan for the thing, so he's gonna do his plan and if it works he'll make a bundle and if not then it'll shrink a lot. But I see him hanging on to it with a skeleton crew before he sells it.
Well yeah, that's what I meant. The costs of having someone scrape the database are essentially zero for Twitter/Reddit. The lost opportunity cost however is astronomical. Reddit and Twitter both are sitting on an incredibly valuable database of genuine interactions. And I understand not wanting to give that away for free.
Problem is, it's too late. Reddit and Twitter have both been scraped already. So locking barn door after horse has left just pisses off the users.
I don't think he'll sell willingly. I just could see a scenario where his creditors who paid for a large part of it demand to see some return on investment and force him too.
Agreed. The fact that especially Reddit, but a lesser extent Twitter have been unable to monetize genuine human posts and all the data that gives (Reddit is basically the only way to make Google useful nowadays and Twitter is basically the only place to go for breaking news) seems negligent to me.
But like you said, the horse it out of the barn. There's no getting back that lost potential value.
I think for that to happen, 1. value of TSLA would have to drop a lot making creditors question his ability to repay, and 2. value of TWTR would have to remain relatively high. Right now TSLA is rising and TWTR valuation is falling so if I was a creditor I'd much rather hold Elon debt than a piece of TWTR.
Reddit / Twitter / Facebook / etc haven't found any creative way to monetize the numerous genuine interactions on their platform other than data mining them for ad targeting. So they double down and triple down again on that- Facebook went creepy and might as well be a credit bureau, Reddit tried to stay non-evil for a while, Twitter just kind of did their own thing and burned cash and never really made money but investors stayed in because a company that big has to eventually make money somehow.
Now they all say HOLY SHIT WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOMETHING OF REAL VALUE TO SELL!!!!! and see AI training as their winning lottery ticket.
What strikes me though is how un-creative it all is. Here's a bunch of the most important databases in human history and the best they can think up is ads and AI training?
And they all do the same thing- grow into huge companies with tons of distraction side projects and middle managers that burn cash, then wonder why they aren't profitable.
Elon saw that with Twitter- to run Twitter you need server people and developers and ad salespeople and the rest of them probably did little of use. Same thing is probably true with Reddit though. Reddit has like 2000 employees. What the hell do they all do? It sure as hell isn't productive development. I'd bet money they have a ton of useless middle management.
Any one of these companies (IMHO) would do much better trying to be a utility more or less. Make it easy and cheap/free for everyone, but keep operating costs down. Make a little money off a lot of people. And do what Reddit would do if they had two brain cells to rub together- pay us a fee and you are the customer and can use the thing however you want; or don't and you see a ton of ads.