this post was submitted on 04 Feb 2024
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Predictions
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Is this based on your experience using AVP? Or, you’re just guessing?
Based on every attempt to make VR or AR a ubiquitous thing, historically. The hype and the market do not align, but the R&D budgets are never bottomless while they wait for a market to materialize.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_Boy to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Glass -- history is littered with tech failures in this space.
The most successful one so far, the Quest 2, was successful because of its low price. Apple went with the opposite strategy.
People have said the same kinds of things about lots of Apple products that end up dominating, or at least being a key player in those markets. The trick is don’t think about the current Apple Vision as the end-game. It’s what Apple is able to manage with current resources and getting it out to market helps them figure out what the subsequent steps are. I’ll bet that 5 years from now we’ll see something very different, and probably the product line being split in to consumer and professional targeted models.
Apple can afford and has the willingness to keep a product line going even if they don’t expect it to be really successful for a while.
Sure, but there are also lots of examples of Apple failing, and Apple doesn't have Jobs anymore to push those brand new segment products. I would never write them off immediately, but I just don't see their path to success here.